000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260931 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 931 UTC Sun Feb 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N115W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the axis between 120W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northwest winds over the Gulf of California near Los Cabos, between low pressure over central Mexico and high pressure west of Baja California Norte, have likely diminished to 20 kt or less as the pressure gradient weakens. An earlier altimeter pass indicated seas may be reaching 8 ft between Los Cabos, Cabo Corrientes, and Socorro Island leftover from the earlier fresh to strong winds. These seas will subside later this morning as the winds continue to diminish. The high pressure will shift eastward through early in the week, allowing winds to diminish further to light to gentle breezes. A weakening cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Monday night and Tuesday. This may bring a brief and fairly localized pulse of 20 to 25 kt westerly gap winds to the northern Gulf of California early Tuesday. Looking further ahead, northwest winds will strengthen starting mid week as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Farther south, fresh winds are likely pulsing through the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning then diminish through late morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, allowing strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, possibly reaching gale force by Thursday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A very weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters of the eastern Tropical Pacific extending northeast into the western Caribbean. This is producing light to gentle breezes across the region. Strengthening trade winds across the southwest Caribbean will support fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo starting late Sunday night into early Monday, with nocturnal pulsing of the winds expected through the upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from 30N130W to 23N140W. Winds were stronger earlier ahead of this front, but have since diminished as the main dynamic support aloft for the front as lifting to the northeast. Long period northwest swell follows the front with a recent altimeter pass indicating wave heights to 9 ft. A few showers are likely near the front. The front will continue to move eastward through early in the week, reaching from off Baja California Norte to 25N125W by late Monday. The swell will decay below 8 ft by tonight. Seas will build to 6 to 8 ft farther south from 10N to 15N west of 130W, the result of a mix of the effect of moderate trade winds and a component of the longer period northwest swell through early Monday. A persistent surface trough is analyzed from 04N114W to 09N110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of this trough. The trough will continue west reaching near 120W by late Monday before dampening out. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build north of the area through mid week, allowing northeast 15 to 20 kt winds across the entire region west of 120W with seas building 8 to 9 ft mainly in a mix of northeast wind waves and northwest swell. $$ CHRISTENSEN