000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250823 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 823 UTC Sat Feb 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... There is no ITCZ currently over the forecast waters north of the equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations and satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh northwest winds continue off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, between 1025 mb high pressure centered near 31N125W and low pressure over north central Mexico. These winds are diminishing, but lingering northwest swell up to 8 ft persists between Los Cabos and Socorro Islands. These seas will subside through the morning to below 8 ft. Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue over the southern portions of the Gulf of California with seas reaching 8 ft near Los Cabos into the afternoon. Winds and seas over the Gulf will diminish through tonight as the low pressure shifts farther east and the high pressure builds over the region. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds are possible tonight into the northern Gulf of California, related to a weak frontal boundary moving across the southern Rockies. The high pressure will maintain moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California and the northern Gulf of California Monday night into Tuesday, but with little change in winds or seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strengthening trade winds across the southwest Caribbean will support fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo starting Sunday night, and persisting mainly during overnight hours through the upcoming week. Similarly expect fresh northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong southerly winds are noted north of 26N and west of 134W ahead of an approaching cold front associated with a complex low pressure system northwest of the area. Recent altimeter passes also have indicated seas of 8 to 12 ft likely due to northwest swell over much of the discussion area north of 20N and west of 130W. A few showers are ongoing near 30N136W as well, but the main areas of thunderstorms are north of the region. The winds will diminish through today as the low pressure area lifts farther north followed by weak ridging. The seas will remain 8 to 10 ft through much of the day, but will decrease in coverage from east to west. By late Sunday, the front will reach from 30N127W to 25N135W, although with light to gentle breezes and seas less than 8 ft across the region. Little change is expected through early in the week. While the ridge will allow winds to diminish north of 20N, it will support fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N west of 130W, which in turn will support seas to 8 ft along with a component of northwest swell starting Sunday. $$ CHRISTENSEN