000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240800 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 UTC Fri Feb 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... There is no ITCZ currently over the forecast waters north of the equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations and scatterometer passes indicated northwest winds 20 to 25 kt off the coast of Baja California. Concurrent altimeter passes indicated seas of 8 to 11 ft in this area as well. Recent observations from La Paz in Baja California Sur indicated northerly winds to 20 to 25 kt, indicative of at least 20 kt across the southern portions of the Gulf of California. The fresh strong northerly winds are result of a tight pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure centered west of the area and deep 1001 mb low pressure centered over north central Mexico. Winds will gradually diminish off the Baja California peninsula through late today as the high pressure shifts slowly eastward. Seas will subside below 8 ft tonight as the winds diminish. Strong winds are anticipated in the southwest entrances to the Gulf of California off Cabo Pulmo late today and tonight, then will diminish below 20 kt through late Saturday. Weak high pressure will remain over the area into early next week, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the region Monday night and Tuesday, allowing a slight increase in winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle mainly onshore winds will prevail through Saturday. Winds will freshen and shift offshore along the Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama Saturday night through Sunday night as fresh easterly trade winds return to the western Caribbean. The Papagayo gap winds may become strong Monday night as trade winds increase across the southwest Caribbean Sea. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Seas continue to subside as an earlier round of northwest swell decays below 8 ft across the region. Earlier altimeter data and reports from buoy 43010 near 10N125W show seas just below 8 ft over most of the region east of 125W. Moderate breezes cover the entire area south of a 1025 mb high pressure area centered north of the region. Southerly winds will increase today in the northwest corner of the discussion area ahead of a cold front expected to pass east of 140W tonight. Another group of northwest swell reaching 8 to 10 ft will accompany the front, although most wave guidance indicates this northwest swell above 8 ft will remain north of 25N and west of 135W through Sunday as the swell subsides. Looking ahead, a reinforcing boundary will move west of 140W early next week, bringing another push of northwest swell into the northwest portions of the discussion area. Building high pressure north of the area behind this boundary will allow fresh trade winds deeper into the tropics from 05N to 10N west of 125W with seas reaching 8 ft in a mix of local trade wind related wave and longer period northwest swell. $$ CHRISTENSEN