000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210903
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
523 UTC Tue Feb 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure will build
across eastern Mexico today in the wake of a frontal system
moving slowly across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds generated
west of the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec bringing the next gale force gap wind event. 
This event will be brief as winds peak near minimal gale force
tonight through early Wednesday morning. Winds will then diminish
below gale force early Wednesday and below advisory criteria by 
Wednesday night.

Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale 
force gap wind event. 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the forecast 
waters as depicted by the overnight ASCAT pass. Seas are in the 
6-8 ft range over the waters offshore Baja California and 
southwest Mexico, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft 
over the remainder of the forecast waters. A fresh set of 
northwesterly swells generated by a cold front west of the area 
has moved into the offshore waters off Baja California Norte. 
This swell will propagate across the waters off the west coast of
the Baja California peninsula and maintain seas in the 6-9 ft 
range over this area through early Friday. Seas are then expected
to subside below 8 ft over this area Friday night into the 
weekend. High pressure will strengthen west of the Baja 
California peninsula during the second half of the week, helping 
to strengthen winds along the western Baja coast.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse from moderate to locally 
fresh during the overnight hours through tonight, and diminish
afterwards.

Otherwise, winds will be in the light to gentle range over the
forecast area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 27N121W. A cold front 
is moving through the northern waters, currently extending from 
30N126W to 21N140W. Overnight ASCAT pass indicates winds have
diminished to 20 kt or less associated to this front. Northwest 
swell associated with the front continues to propagate southeast
across the forecast waters while slowly subsiding. Seas are
currently peaking near 17 ft west of the front. The front will 
continue to slowly move eastward today while weakening, and is 
expected to dissipate later today. Northwest swells continue to
dominate the forecast waters, with seas greater than 8 ft
covering much of the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 
110W. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will start to 
decrease the second half of the week. By Friday night into 
Saturday seas greater than 8 ft are expected to be confined to 
the far northwest waters, as yet another set of northwest swells 
moves into the area. 

$$
AL