000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1324 UTC Mon Feb 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure will build over eastern Mexico behind low pressure moving east across the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night, helping to produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This event will be brief as winds peak near minimal gale force Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish below gale force Wednesday morning, and fall below advisory criteria Wednesday evening as the high pressure ridge shifts quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to 05N130W to 04N137W to beyond 02N140W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 27N121W ridges SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the offshore waters along the coast of Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell continue to push SE along the entire length of the Baja Peninsula and the Mexican coast as far SE as Manzanillo. As the swell head SE they continue to subside. Seas of 10-12 ft are affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the remaining zones from Manzanillo northwestward. Seas of 4-6 ft are found over the remainder of the offshore Pacific waters. Seas are generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas will continue to subside off the coast of the Baja California, falling below 8 ft by early Tuesday morning. A cold front will weaken and dissipate W of Baja but a fresh round of NW swell associated with the front will propagate into the area and cause seas to rebuild above 8 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte Tuesday afternoon. In the wake of the front a high pressure ridge will strengthen W of the Baja California peninsula during the second half of this week. This will strengthen the winds along the Baja coast during this time frame. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse from moderate to locally fresh during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then diminish by midweek. Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse from moderate to fresh tonight. Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high remains centered over the northern waters near 27N121W. A cold front is moving through the NW waters and extends from 30N132W to 24N140W. Winds have increased over this area. Fresh to strong winds are present N of 28N up to 90 nm SE of the front. Strong to near gale winds are occurring N of 26N and west of the front. NW swells associated with the front continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters. The cold front has ushered in a fresh set of NW swell into the area. Seas will peak near 20 ft today over the far NW waters before they start to subside. The front will continue to shift eastward while weakening, and is expected to eventually dissipate late Tuesday. Winds associated to the front will diminish as the front weakens, and are expected to diminish below advisory criteria by late tonight. NW swell will continue to propagate SE. This area of seas that are 8 ft or greater will merge with the area currently SW of Baja by Tuesday evening. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover the forecast waters north of a line from 24N115W to 08N119W to 07N140W by Tuesday evening. Areal coverage of 8 ft seas will then decrease as the week progresses, with only a residual area of 8 ft seas remaining over the waters N of 20N and W of 135W by Friday evening. $$ cam