000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1324 UTC Sun Feb 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 07N87W to 04N95W to 07N104W. It resumes from 09N118W to 02N133W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 06N between 93W and 96W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The cold front that was moving southward near Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands has dissipated. High pressure centered near 25N134W continues building eastward. Fresh to strong winds that were over the offshore waters along the coast of Baja California Norte and the northern portion of Baja California Sur have subsided to moderate to fresh as the high begins to weaken in response to an approaching cold front NW of the discussion area. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the offshore waters off the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Large NW swells continue arriving in the coastal and offshore waters of the entire Baja California peninsula. Seas as high as 17 ft continue to lurk in the waters west of Baja California Norte. These swell are maintaining dangerous conditions across these waters. Please see statements from your local meteorological agency on this high impact swell event. Winds and seas have begun to decrease and will continue decreasing over this area during the next couple of days as the high to the west. By late Monday night, seas will subside to 6-8 ft. A fresh set of NW swell will once again propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte. Seas will rebuild to near 10 ft in zone PMZ011 by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will build SE over eastern Mexico behind a surface trough moving east across the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, helping produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This event will be brief as winds peak near gale force late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish below advisory levels on Wednesday evening as high pressure over Mexico weakens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then diminish midweek. Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds during the overnight hours through Monday night. Winds will then diminish afterwards. Otherwise, winds will be light to gentle. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern waters near 25N134W. The main threat across the area continues to be large NW swell that were generated to the N of the cold front that recently dissipated over the waters near southern Baja. Sea heights remain in excess of 12 ft over much of the area north of 12N and west of 110W. The swell will continue to propagate SE while continuing to subside during the next few days. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread as far south as 04N and as far east as 100W by Tuesday afternoon. Another cold front will push into the far NW waters this afternoon. Southwest winds ahead of the approaching cold front have already become strong over the far NW waters. Strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 28N can be expected to continue until around midday on Monday. Strong to near gale winds will persist west of the front today through Monday afternoon before tapering off. This front will reintroduce a fresh set of large NW swell into the forecast waters. Seas will peak near 19 ft over the far NW waters on Monday morning. Seas will slowly subside as the swell propagate southeastward. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast waters north of 05N and west of 115W by midday Tuesday. Areal coverage of 8 ft seas will decrease Tuesday night through Friday and leave only a residual area of 8 ft seas over the far NW waters N of 15N and W of 135W. $$ cam