000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 459 UTC Sun Feb 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 06N86W to 06N105W. It resumes from 08.5N118W to 01N140W. No significant convection is occurring in the vicinity of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to push across the southern Gulf of California into the Pacific waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. High pressure is building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the offshore waters off the coast of Baja California Norte and the northern portion of Baja California Sur. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the offshore waters off the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Large northwesterly swells are impacting the coastal and offshore waters of the entire Baja California peninsula, with seas near 20 ft off Baja California Norte. This swell is bringing dangerous conditions across these waters. Please see statements from your local meteorological agency on this high impact swell event. The cold front will shift east of the area today with winds and seas decreasing over this area the next couple of days. By late Monday night, seas will subside to 6-8 ft seas. A fresh set of northwesterly swells will once again propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte, with seas building to near 10 ft by the middle of the week. High pressure will build across eastern Mexico behind a surface trough moving across the western Gulf of Mexico early this week, helping produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This will be a brief event with winds peaking near gale force late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before diminishing below advisory criteria by Wednesday evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then diminish midweek. Gulf of Panama: Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh northerly flow during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then diminish afterwards. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure has built in the wake of the strong cold front that moved across the northern waters the past couple of days. The main impact across the area continues to be the large northwesterly swells, with seas in excess of 12 ft covering much of the area north of 20N between 115W and 130W. This swell will continue to propagate southeastward while subsiding over the next few days. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread as far south as 05N and east to 105W by Tuesday afternoon. Another cold front will push into the far northwest waters today. The overnight ASCAT pass indicate winds have freshened over the northwest waters ahead of the approaching front. Strong to near gale winds will prevail west of the front tonight through Monday afternoon before diminishing. This front will usher in a fresh set of large northwesterly swells into the forecast waters, with seas peaking near 20 ft over the far northwest waters early Monday morning into the afternoon. Seas will slowly subside as the swell propagates southeastward. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 120W by Tuesday evening before areal coverage of 8 ft seas starts to decrease. $$ AL