000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: An occluded front extends from a 1000 mb low over Baja California Norte to northwest Mexico where it transitions to a cold front that enters the Gulf of California from 27N109W continuing to 25N110W. Minimal gale force southerly winds are over the gulf waters from 24N to 28N with seas to 8 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force tonight. Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these gale force wind conditions. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 06N86W to 06N97W to 06N105W to 07N110W. No significant convection is observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf of California. A cold front extends from 24N111W to 19N119W then dissipates through 17N125W. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure to the west supports west to northwest fresh to near gale force winds in the offshore zones west of Baja California with seas ranging from 8 to 21 ft. Winds will gradually diminish northward through Sunday morning when moderate to fresh winds will dominate the offshores north of Baja California Sur. However, large seas will spread southward along the Baja California peninsula through early next week. Another cold front will weaken as it approaches Baja on Monday and Tuesday. However, the front will usher in another set of NW swell into the forecast waters. Seas will peak between 8 and 15 ft in the northern zones on Tuesday morning. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is on tap for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: mainly gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail through most of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly flow is generally expected through most of the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front is moving southeast over Baja and the Gulf of California. The front produced a large area of gale force winds and very large seas. See the Special Features section above for more details. NW swells and seas greater than 8 ft currently cover much of the waters north of a line from 21N111W to 15N116W to 13N130W to 04N140W. This swell event will slowly subside as it continues to propagate southeastward. Another strong cold front is forecast to move into the far NW corner on Sunday with fresh to strong SW winds expected ahead of the front. Strong to near gale force winds are expected west of the front. This front will usher in a fresh set of long period northwesterly swell, with seas peaking around 20 ft over the far northwest waters on Monday morning. $$ NR