000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1355 UTC Sat Feb 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: An occluded front passes through the Gulf of California from 31N114W to 30N113.5W, then continues as a cold front to 29N113.5W. Southerly winds have increased to 30-35 kt over the far northern Gulf of California ahead of the approaching front mentioned above. The front will move east- southeast across the gulf waters today. Minimal gale force southerly winds are possible over the gulf waters south of 28N on today. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to affect the States of Sonora and Sinaloa today. See statements from your local meteorological agency on this weather event that is expected to produce significant impacts across Baja California, the Gulf of California and NW Mexico. Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these gale force wind conditions. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N91W to 06N96W to 05N100W to 06N103W to 05N105W to 06N107W. A second ITCZ reaches from 01S104W to 02N108W to 03S118W to beyond 02S120W. No significant convection is associated with either ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf of California. A strong cold front has moved into the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte from 27N114W to 23N116W to 20N120W, where strong to near gale winds prevail. Seas in zone PMZ011 have increased to near 20 ft. These large seas will spread southward along the Baja California peninsula today. Seas off the coast of the Baja California peninsula will slowly subside over the weekend, and fall below 8 ft early next week. Another cold front will weaken as it approaches Baja on Monday and Tuesday. However, the front will usher in another set of NW swell into the forecast waters. Seas will peak between 8 and 15 ft in the northern zones on Tuesday morning. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is on tap for Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: mainly gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail through most of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly flow is generally expected through most of the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front is moving SE over Baja and the Gulf of California. The front produced a large area of gale force winds and very large seas. Winds and seas have begun to subside W of Baja. See the Special Features section above for more details. NW swells and seas greater than 8 ft currently cover much of the waters north of a line from 21N111W to 15N116W to 13N130W to 04N140W. This swell event will slowly subside as it continues to propagate southeastward. Another strong cold front is forecast to move into the far NW corner on Sunday with fresh to strong SW winds expected ahead of the front. Strong to near gale force winds are expected west of the front. This front will usher in a fresh set of long period northwesterly swell, with seas peaking around 20 ft over the far northwest waters on Monday morning. $$ cam