000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 507 UTC Sat Feb 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A powerful Pacific storm system moving eastward toward the State of California has pushed a cold front across the northern forecast waters. At 0600 UTC, the front extends from 30N117W TO 22N120W TO 18N140W. Latest ASCAT pass indicates that winds have diminished below gale force east of the front, but continue west of the front. The front has ushered in a large northwesterly swell, with seas greater than 12 ft currently affecting most of the waters N of 23N W of 115W. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the waters off Baja California Norte today. Seas around 25-26 ft are currently affecting the north central waters. The seas will slowly subside to near 20 ft across the NE waters this afternoon and tonight. This large and dangerous swell event has reached the coast of Baja California Norte, and will spread southward across the entire western coast of Baja California today, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands on Sunday and the Cabo Corrientes region of Mexico Sunday night. See statements from your local meteorological agency on this significant marine event for information on high seas, and associated dangerous beach and surf conditions. Gulf of California Gale Warning: Southerly winds have increase to 30-35 kt over the far northern Gulf of California ahead of the approaching cold front mentioned above. The front will move east- southeast across the gulf waters today. Minimal gale force southerly winds are possible over the gulf waters south of 28N on today. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to affect the States of Sonora and Sinaloa today. See statements from your local meteorological agency on this weather event that is expected to produce significant impacts across Baja California, the Gulf of California and NW Mexico. Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these gale force wind conditions. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ and associated convection is located S of the area. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf of California. A strong cold front has moved into the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte, where strong to near gale winds prevail and seas have built to near 15 ft. These large seas will continue southward offshore the Baja California peninsula today. Seas off the coast of the Baja California peninsula will slowly subside over the weekend, and fall below 8 ft early next week. Another set of northwesterly swell will move into the forecast waters off the coast of Baja California Norte midweek. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected on Tuesday, with winds reaching minimal gale force Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected through most of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly flow is generally expected through most of the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front is moving across the northern waters producing a large area of gale force winds and very large seas. See the Special Features section above for more details. Northwesterly swells with seas greater than 8 ft are currently covering much of the waters north of 15N and west of 115W. This swell event will slowly subside as it continues to propagate southeastward. Another strong cold front is forecast to move into the far NW corner on Sunday with fresh to strong southwesterly winds expected ahead of the front. Strong to near gale force winds are expected west of the front. This front will usher in a fresh set of long period northwesterly swell, with seas peaking near 20-21 ft over the far northwest waters by early Monday morning. $$ AL