000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Gale force northwesterly winds will develop tonight across the EPAC waters from 28N to 32N W of 134W behind a cold front expected to reach a position from 32N131W to 24N140W. Gale force southerly flow will develop on Fri just ahead of the front as it reaches a position from 32N124W to 22N131W to 20N140W. By then the post-frontal flow will have increased to 30 to 45 kt, with seas building to 19 to 25 ft. The southerly gale conditions will shift E across the far offshore waters of PMZ009 and PMZ011 late Fri, then diminish to near gale force on Fri night. The northwesterly gale conditions will just briefly reach the far offshore waters of these two zones on Sat morning, then diminish to strong to near gale force flow that will shift E across the waters N of 20N through late Sun before diminishing to 20 kt or less. The associated large NW swell, in the form of 8 to 18 ft seas, will reach the entire coast of Baja through early Mon before subsiding. See statements from your local meteorological agency on this significant marine event for information on dangerous beach and surf conditions. Gulf of california gale warning: A moderate to locally fresh nw breeze will persist over the gulf waters N of 30N this morning, while light to locally moderate nw winds expected to the s of 30N. Winds will begin to clock around to the S over the N gulf later today, and spread S across the entire gulf tonight. A fresh to locally strong breeze is expected across the waters N of 30N late tonight and Fri, increasing to minimal gale force on Fri night ahead of the major cold front described above that will move across the gulf waters on Sat and Sat night. Minimal gale force southerly winds are possible over the gulf waters s of 27N by late Sat. Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A broad surface trough continues to meander just inland the Pacific coast of Colombia and Equador with isolated moderate and strong convection occasionally flaring along the coasts to the S of the equator. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ and its related convection remains in the southern hemisphere from 03S to 07S. A trough extends from 1013 mb low pres near 03.5N99W to 06N87W, where scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection has flared from 02N to 06N between 92W and 96W. A convergence line located from 14N106W to 07N117W where widely scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm on either side. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: See special features section above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds to 25 kt this morning with seas to 8 ft will gradually subside throughout the day, becoming variable less than 15 kt tonight and then southerly around 15 kt Fri and Fri night. Moderate NW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the waters W of 104W including the waters W of the Baja Peninsula. Another round of NW swell will arrive at 30N120W this afternoon and reach the Baja coast to the n of 28N tonight, then spread SE across all waters N of 25N w of Baja Peninsula by Fri morning. The focus then turns to an approaching cold front with gales expected to develop on both side of the front, and very large NW swell in excess of 15 ft through the weekend. Refer to special features section above. Light winds and 3 to 5 ft seas forecast elsewhere across the EPAC waters N of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Light to moderate variable winds today will become NE to E tonight and produce a brief pulse of fresh ENE winds across the region early Friday then gradually veer to E to ESE Friday night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly flow is generally expected through Sat. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See special features above. $$ Stripling