000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Gale force northwesterly winds will develop tonight across the EPAC waters from 28N to 32N w of 134W in the wake of a cold front along position from 32N131W to 24N140W. Gale force southerly flow will develop on Fri just ahead of the front along a position from 32N124W to 22N131W to 20N140W. By then the post- frontal flow will have increased to 30 to 45 kt, with seas of 19 to 25 ft. The southerly gale conditions will shift e across the far offshore waters of PMZ009 and PMZ011 late Fri, then diminish to near gale force on Fri night. The northwesterly gale conditions will just briefly reach the far offshore waters of these two zones on Sat morning. Then diminish to strong to near gale force flow that will shift e across the waters n of 20N through late Sun before diminishing to 20 kt or less. The associated large nw swell, in the form of 8 to 18 ft seas, will reach the entire coast of Baja through early Mon before subsiding. See local statements for information on strong surf conditions. Gulf of california gale warning: A moderate to locally fresh nw breeze will persist over the gulf waters n of 30N this morning, while light to locally moderate nw winds expected to the s of 30N. Winds will begin to clock to s over the n gulf later today, and spread s across the entire gulf tonight. A fresh to locally strong breeze is expected across the waters n of 30N late tonight and Fri, increasing to minimal gale force on Fri night ahead of a cold front moving across the gulf waters on Sat and Sat night. Minimal gale force southerly winds are possible over the gulf waters s of 27N late Sat. Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A broad surface trough continues to meander just inland the Pacific coast of Colombia and Equador with isolated moderate and strong convection occasionally flaring along the coasts to the s of 02N. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ, and ITCZ- related convection remains s of the equator. A trough extends from 06N95W to 00N97W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 150 nm either side of a line from 04N91W to 05N99W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: See special features section above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds will continue through sunrise this morning with seas building briefly to 8 ft. Moderate nw winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the waters w of 104w including the waters w of the Baja Peninsula. Another round of nw swell will arrive at 30N120W this afternoon and reach the Baja coast to the n of 28N tonight, then spread s across all waters n of 25N w of Baja Peninsula by Fri morning. The focus then turns to an approaching cold front. Refer to special features section above. Light winds and 3 to 5 ft seas forecast elsewhere across the EPAC waters n of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A brief pulse of fresh ene winds is expected tonight. Gulf of Panama: Moderate nocturnal flow expected tonight and on Fri night. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See special features above. $$ Nelson