000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160313
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the north-central waters.
A deep low pressure system will cross north of the area late 
Thursday through late Friday, pushing a cold front across the 
north waters. The front will enter the forecast area late
Thursday and will reach a position from 30N128W to 22N140W by
early Friday morning. At that time, gale force winds,likely in
the 30-40 kt range, are expected NW of the front but mainly 
north of 27N to about 138W. Very large seas will also be 
associated with this low/front across the north waters. Seas are 
forecast to build to 18-25 ft within the area of the gale force 
winds. The front will continue to move eastward approaching the 
offshore waters W of The Baja California Peninsula by late 
Friday. Marine guidance indicates that winds ahead of the front 
will further increase to gale force by Friday evening, when the 
front is forecast to extend from 30N120W to 24N125W to 19N140W. 
Expect increasing winds and building seas across the offshore 
waters W of Baja California late Friday into Saturday. As the 
front pushes eastward, winds will also increase across the Baja
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California late Friday into
Saturday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ and associated convection remains south of the Equator.
This normally occurs during March and April of each year. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb centered near 24N130W extends a ridge 
SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing
mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds across the offshore 
waters W of Baja California with seas of 5-6 ft based on a recent
altimeter pass. Scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds across the northern part of the Gulf of California
with seas to near 5 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to locally
moderate northerly winds are noted with seas of 2-3 ft except to
3-4 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. These marine conditions 
will persdist on Thursday as the high pressure moves eastward. By
late Thursday, a new set of long period NW swell will reach the 
waters W of Baja and N of 26N, then spread south across all 
waters W of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday. 

A brief gap wind event will occur across the Tehuantepec area
tonight and Thursday morning. This will be associated with a high 
pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake 
of a cold front currently moving over the central Bay of 
Campeche. Expect northerly winds of 20-25 kt and seas to 8 ft 
with this gap wind event. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf
of Papagayo. Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt Thursday
night and Friday, and again Sunday night. In the Gulf of Panama 
and downstream, expect northerly winds in the 10-15 kt range, 
especially at night. Cross equatorial long period SW swell 
continues to affect the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands (except in the lee of the islands), raising seas to 6-7 
ft. This is forecast to persist tonight, with this swell event 
affecting the pacific coast of Panama and Costa Rica. Seas will
subside to 5-6 ft late on Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front is over the far NW corner of the forecast area and 
extends from 30N137W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds are 
ahead of the front to a line from 30N132W to 27N140W. Fresh to 
strong W-NW winds are aslo noted in the wake of the front. A new
set of long period NW swell follows the front and will propagete
SE across much of the forecast waters W of 120W by Thursday
night. The cold front will move across the north waters reaching
a position from 30N127W to 25N140W by Thursday evening. A second
and stronger cold front will enter the NW waters by Thursday 
night merging with the first front by Friday morning. Gale 
conditions are expected behind and ahead of the merging front. 
Please, see Special Features for details. 
 
$$
GR