000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151516
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A developing low pressure system north of the area Thursday will 
push a strong cold front south of 30N into northern waters west 
of 130W Thursday night. Winds ahead the front will be 20 to 30 
kt but northwest winds north of 27N west of the front will reach 
gale force Friday, and persist across northern waters north of 
25N through Saturday. Model guidance also indicates winds will 
reach gale force ahead of the front Friday, and persist as the 
system tracks westward into the Baja Peninsula Saturday through 
Sunday. The intense low pressure system will generate very large 
seas, with wave model guidance showing max seas in excess of 30 
ft north of 27N between 125W and 135W Friday through Saturday 
morning. Marine interests should take extra precaution to avoid 
the effects of this system later this week, and monitor warnings 
issued by the U.S. National Weather Service and the Mexican 
government.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ and associated convection is south of the equator. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Wind and sea conditions across the region are fairly benign this 
morning. Early morning scatterometer data shows mainly gentle to 
moderate northwest winds all the way from W of Baja California 
Norte to Guatemala, and in the Gulf of California. A small area 
of moderate to fresh winds is depicted near Cabo Corrientes. 
Except for a brief pulse of 25 kt northerly winds in Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late tonight, no significant changes are expected 
through Thursday night. However, an intense low pressure system 
will bring strong gusty winds and very large seas to waters 
surrounding the Baja Peninsula Friday night through Sunday 
morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas less than 6 ft prevail across the 
region. Little change is expected through Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A weakening cold front approaching 30N140W will extend from 
30N131W to 26N140W Thursday morning. Fresh to strong SW winds 
north of 27N ahead of the front will gradually diminish 
overnight as the front moves east and dissipates. Large NW swell 
associated with the front will sweep south-southeast to spread 
over a large portion of the forecast area, with seas larger than 
8 ft west of a line from 30N123W to 05N140W by Thursday morning. 
A second reinforcing cold front from a devloping low north of 
the area will move into NW waters late Thursday, preceded by 
near gale southerly winds. Model guidance has become much more 
aggressive with this low pressure system during the past day or 
so, and it now appears likely a rare intense low pressure system 
will track south of 30N and slam into the Baja Peninsula with an 
unusually strong intensity. See special features section for 
more details.

$$ 
Mundell