000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A broad surface trough continues to meander just inland the Pacific coast of Colombia and Equador with isolated moderate and strong convection occasionally flaring along the coasts to the s of 02N. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ, and ITCZ- related convection remains s of the equator. A surface trough extends from 07N86W to 03N93W with scattered moderate convection noted within 60 nm w of the trough and within 60 nm of 06N95W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A moderate to locally fresh nw breeze will develop over the gulf waters n of 30N this morning and persist through early Thu morning. Light winds expected to the s of 30N. Winds will clock to s over the entire gulf beginning across the n waters late Thu where fresh to locally strong breeze expected on Thu night and Fri ahead of a cold front moving across the northern gulf waters on Sat. The associated surface low should pass e across the northern gulf on Sat night into Sun. Minimal gale force winds are possible over the the northern gulf late Fri night and across the waters s of 30N on Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds are forecast to resume these evening and continue through mid morning on Thu with seas building briefly to 8 ft. Moderate nw winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted across the waters w of 104w including the waters w of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient will continue to relax today with light nw to n flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas expected on Thu. Another round of nw swell will arrive at 30N120W on Thu afternoon, reach the Baja coast to the n of 28N on Thu night, then spread s across all waters w of Baja Peninsula by late Fri. A strong cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening accompanied possibly accompanied by minimal gale force southerly winds just ahead of the front with strong to near force winds extending out 240 nm e of the front to the n of 22N. Strong gale conditions are possible n of 25N within 540 nm w of the front with large 12 to 25 ft expected to move into the waters n of 21N on Sat and will pound the entire coast of Baja through early Mon before subsiding. Light winds and 3 to 5 ft seas forecast elsewhere across the EPAC waters n of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late this week, then seas will increase from the n late in the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A pulse of fresh ene winds are expected on Thu night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate nocturnal flow expected this week. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Cross equatorial sw swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas observed s of 01n between 97W and 103W will subside today. A cold front is approaching the far nw waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds will continue to the n of 27N w of 135W today, with strong to near gale force southerly winds from 30N to 32N to the w of 133W, with seas to 18 ft. The cold front will reach from 32N129W to 26N140W late tonight with associated winds diminishing to 20 kt or less to the s of 32N. A second re- enforcing cold front will enter the nw waters at 30N140W late Thu preceded by near gale southerly winds, with the fronts merging on Fri along a position from 32N125W to 22N140W. Model guidance has become much more aggressive over the past 24 hours, and now expect gale conditions to follow the front across the waters n of 27.5N, with seas building to about 30 ft near 31N128W late Fri. By then, the southerly flow could reach minimal gale force just ahead of the front. Associated winds should diminish to 20 kt or less on Sun as another strong cold front reaches 30N140W. Seas of 8 ft or greater expected n of 10N behind the front well into next week. $$ Nelson