000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150321 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ and associated convection is south of the Equator. This usually occurs during March and April. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb centered near 26N128W extends a ridge SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands, producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California with seas of 4-6 ft. Light and variable winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California while gentle NW winds prevail across the central and south parts of the Gulf. Seas are generally below 2 ft, but increase to 3-4 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. A slightly tighter pressure gradient will allow fresh northwest winds into the northern Gulf of California by Wednesday. By late Thursday, a new set of long period NW swell will reach the waters W of Baja and N of 26N. The aforementioned high pressure will move slightly SW over the next 24 hours, as a cold front moves across the NW corner of the forecast region. High pressure building behind a cold front moving over the Gulf of Mexico will allow a pulse of fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wednesday night into Thursday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt Thursday night and Friday, and again Sunday and Sunday night. In the Gulf of Panama and downstream expect northerly winds in the 10-15 kt range, especially at night. Cross equatorial long period SW swell will continue to affect the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands (except in the lee of the islands), raising seas to 6-7 ft tonight and Wednesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to strong southerly winds persist over the far northwest portion of the discussion area ahead of deep low pressure system located over the north-central Pacific. The associated cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W by early Wednesday afternoon and extend from 30N137W TO 28N140W by Thursday evening. A new set of long period NW swell will follow the front building seas up to 18 ft across the far NW corner early on Wednesday. this front will reach a position from 30N128W to 25N140W and stall by Thursday evening. At the same time, a new cold front will enter the forecast region. Southwest swell in the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate northward across the Equator into the south waters roughly between 96W and 110W through early Wednesday morning with combined seas of 8 to 9 ft. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft late on Wednesday. Looking ahead, another deep low pressure system will cross north of the area late Thursday through late Friday, pushing a cold front across the north waters. Expect very large seas and the possibility of gale force winds in association with this low/front across the north waters in the later part of the week, Friday into early Saturday. This low pressure is also forecast by the GFS computer model to bring increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters W of Baja California Norte on Friday. At that day, winds are also expected to increase across the northern Gulf of California. $$ GR