000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141515
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ and associated convection is south of the equator. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds continue to diminish across the region as high pressure 
builds eastward behind an intensifying low pressure system in 
southern Texas. Seas are 6-7 ft off Baja California Norte in 
northwest swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas 
will persist through mid week across the region.

High pressure building behind a cold front moving over the Gulf 
of Mexico will allow a pulse of strong gap winds into the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Also, a 
slightly tighter pressure gradient will allow fresh northwest 
winds into the northern Gulf of California by Wednesday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gap winds are not expected through the end of the week. The 
overall pattern will support light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 
ft seas through mid week, and little change through Friday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Fresh to strong southerly winds persist over the far northwest 
portion of the discussion area ahead of deep low pressure over 
the north central Pacific. The winds and scattered showers will 
continue northwest of a line roughly from 32N135W to 27N140W 
through early Wednesday as the low pressure system gradually 
works its way westward and subtropical high pressure remains 
firmly in place near 29N130W. The high will eventually weaken 
and shift southward Wednesday, allowing a trailing cold front 
from the low pressure system to move south of 30N into forecast 
waters. Looking ahead, a reinforcing low pressure system north 
of the area Thursday will push a strong cold front into the 
region through Friday night as it deepens north of the area. 
Expect very large seas and the possibility of gale force winds 
in the later part of the week, Friday into early Saturday. 

Southwest swell in the Southern Hemisphere will propagate 
northward across the equator through Wednesday morning with 
combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft between 95W and 100W Tuesday, 
then subside to less than 8 ft Wednesday.

$$ 
Mundell