000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A broad surface trough continues to meander just inland the Pacific coast of Colombia and Equador with isolated moderate to strong convection occasionally flaring along the coasts to the s of 03N. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms near 03.4S107W and extends nw to 02S115W. A surface trough is analyzed from 00N107W to 01S120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 02S100W to 01N112W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 08N117W to 10N130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate nw flow forecast through late tonight when a fresh nw breeze s expected to develop over the waters n of 30N with an embedded swatch of strong winds on Wed afternoon. The pressure gradient will relax on Wed night with a light to moderate breeze forecast across the entire gulf waters on Thu. Winds will clock to s over the northern gulf on Thu, and increase to a strong breeze on Fri ahead of a cold front moving across the northern gulf waters on Sat. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are forecast to the n of 25N on Sat afternoon with seas building to 7 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds are forecast to resume on Wed evening and continue through mid morning on Thu with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh nw winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted across the waters w of 104w including the waters w of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient will relax today with light nw to n flow, and 3 to 6 ft seas expected tonight, and 3 to 5 ft seas on Wed. Another round of nw swell will arrive at 30N120W on Thu afternoon, reach the Baja coast to the n of 28N on Thu night, then spread s across all waters w of Baja Peninsula by late Fri. A strong cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening accompanied by a strong to near gale force wind shift to the n of 23N followed by 11 to 19 ft seas in the large nw swell that will pound the entire coast of Baja through the upcoming weekend. The post-frontal flow will diminish to a moderate nw breeze on Sun afternoon with seas subsiding through Mon. Light winds and 3 to 6 ft seas forecast elsewhere across the EPAC waters n of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late this week, then seas will increase from the n late in the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong ene winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are forecast from 10N to 11.5N to the e of 89W through mid morning. Then light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas expected through late week. Gulf of Panama: Fresh n winds will continue through sunrise this morning with only moderate n winds tonight. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Cross equatorial sw swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas will propagate n across the equator today reaching along 04N between 94W and 107W later today, then subside to less than 8 ft on Wed. Nw swell will maintain 6 to 8 ft seas elsewhere across the Epac waters from roughly 10N to 20n w of 124W today, with seas subsiding to less than 8 ft tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will continue to the n of 27N w of 137W today, with strong to near gale force southerly winds from 30N to 32N w of 136W all ahead of a strong cold front reaching 30N140W on Wed accompanied by seas to 20 ft along 31N. The cold front will reach from 31N132W to 27N140W tonight with associated winds diminishing to 20 kt or less. A second re- enforcing cold front will enter the nw waters at 30N140W late Thu, with the fronts merging on Fri. Latest guidance is hinting that the nw flow will increase to minimal gale force of 30 to 35 kt to the n of 29N between 124W and 135W late Fri through late Fri night. The front will sweep e of the area on Sat leaving large 12 to 24 ft seas across the area n of 22N. $$ Nelson