000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2100 UTC Mon Feb 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ is south of the equator. A surface trough extends from 07N85W to 03.4S105W has scattered moderate convection within 45 nm either side of the trough between 100W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data indicates winds have diminished behind a dissipating cold front that moved through the Baja California peninsula and southern Gulf of California. A concurrent altimeter pass indicated seas are still as high as 9 ft off Baja California, primarily in northwest swell. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail into mid week across the region including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights off Baja California Norte will subside to below 8 ft tonight, with 4 to 6 ft in open waters into mid week. By Wednesday, high pressure will build behind a cold front moving over the Gulf of Mexico, allowing a pulse of strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In addition, a slightly tighter pressure gradient will allow fresh northwest winds into the northern Gulf of California by Wednesday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo will see one more pulse of strong gap winds tonight, but the pattern overall will support light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas through mid week, and little change through late week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to strong southerly winds persist over the far northwest portion of the discussion area ahead of deep low pressure over the north central Pacific. The winds and scattered showers will continue northwest of a line roughly from 32N135W to 27N140W through early Wednesday as the low pressure system gradually works its way westward and subtropical high pressure remains firmly in place near 29N130W. The high will eventually weaken and shift southward Wednesday, allowing a trailing cold front from the low pressure system to move south of 30N into forecast waters. Looking ahead, a reinforcing low pressure system north of the area Thursday will push a strong cold front into the region through Friday night as it deepens north of the area. Expect very large seas and the possibility of gale force winds in the later part of the week, Friday into early Saturday. Southwest swell in the Southern Hemisphere will propagate northward across the equator through Wednesday morning with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft between 90W and 110W Tuesday, then subside to 7-8 ft by Wednesday morning. $$ CHRISTENSEN