000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ is south of the equator. A surface trough extends from 06N91W to 03.4S106W has scattered moderate convection within 45 nm either side of a line from 06N91W to 03N94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is passing through the southern Gulf of California. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are possible north of the frontal boundary today. Gentle to moderate NW winds are likely in gulf waters through Thursday. Fresh to locally strong NW winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted immediately west of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient will relax tonight, with winds and seas diminishing as a result. Another round of NW swell will arrive Thursday afternoon and spread southward to encompass all waters west of Baja through this weekend. A strong cold front will reach 120W Friday evening, accompanied by a strong to near gale force wind shift along the frontal boundary, then followed by large building seas to 11-16 ft. Further south, fresh north winds were observed in scatterometer data flowing into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sunday, but the pressure gradient in the region is relaxing, and model guidance indicates fresh to strong gap winds are not likely to reoccur in the area until at least Thursday morning. Elsewhere, light winds and 3-6 ft seas are expected north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gap winds funneling into the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama have diminished significantly over the past 24 hours as the pressure gradient across the region relaxes. NE winds through the Gulf of Papagayo will again pulse to around 20 kt tonight, but weaken on Tuesday, and are not expected to reoccur through at least Friday. Light to gentle winds with 3-6 ft seas will continue elsewhere outside of swell generated by these gap wind events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A massive, intense storm system in the north-central Pacific centered near 51N156W is producing a tight pressure gradient over northwest forecast waters. Strong southerly winds and scattered showers will continue northwest of a line roughly from 32N135W to 27N140W through early Wednesday as the low pressure system gradually works its way westward and subtropical high pressure remains firmly in place near 27N128W. The high will eventually weaken and shift southward Wednesday, allowing a trailing cold front from the low pressure system to move south of 30N into forecast waters. A reinforcing low pressure system centered near 36N145W Thursday will push a strong cold front into the region through Friday night as it deepens north of the area. Expect very large seas and the possibility of gale force winds in the later part of the week, Friday into early Saturday. Cross-equatorial sw swell will propagate northward across the equator through Wednesday morning with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft between 92W and 108W Tuesday, then subside to 7-8 ft by Wednesday morning. $$ Mundell