000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A broad surface trough is meandering just inland the Pacific coast of Colombia and Equador with isolated moderate to strong convection occasionally flaring along the coast. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ is s of the 03.4S and a surface trough extends from 06N90W to 03.4S106W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N92W to 03.4S105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A weakening cold front is passing through the southern gulf waters between 26N and 27N with fresh to locally strong nw winds expected to persist through late this morning. The pressure gradient will relax on Mon with gentle to moderate nw flow forecast through Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds with seas of 4 to 7 will persist through mid morning today then diminish to a fresh breeze this afternoon. Strong n winds expected again briefly on Wed evening within the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to locally strong nw winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted across the waters w of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient will relax tonight with moderate flow and 4 to 7 ft seas w of Baja tonight and Tue and 3 to 5 ft seas on Wed. Another round of nw swell will arrive at 30N120W on Thu afternoon, reach the Baja coast n of 28N on Thu night, then spread s across all waters w of Baja through the upcoming weekend as a strong cold front reaches 30N120W on Fri evening accompanied by a strong to near gale force wind shift along the front followed by 11 to 16 ft seas. Light winds and 3 to 6 ft seas forecast elsewhere across the EPAC waters n of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong ene winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are forecast from 10N to 11.5N to the e of 88W through mid morning and then another brief gap event expected tonight. Gulf of Panama: Fresh n winds will continue through sunrise this morning and develop again tonight. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Cross equatorial sw swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas will propagate n across the equator reaching along 04N between 92W and 108W on Tue, then subside to less than 8 ft on Wed. Fresh n winds and 6 to 9 ft seas observed n of 26N between 120W and 125W are forecast to diminish later this morning. Strong southerly winds and scattered moderate convection will continue to the n of 29N w of 138W today, with strong to near gale force southerly winds from 30N to 32N w of 137W. Nw swell will maintain 6 to 8 ft seas elsewhere across the Epac waters w of 120W through Tue with seas subsiding to less than 8 ft. The exception is across the far nw waters where strong to near gale southerly winds are forecast to the n of 25N ahead of a cold front reaching new on Wed accompanied by seas to 20 ft along 31N. The cold front will reach from new to new on Thu night as a second re-enforcing cold front enters the nw waters. The fronts will merge on Fri and sweep e of the area on Sat leaving large 12 to 25 ft seas across the area n of 25N, with minimal gale force westerly winds from 30N to 32N late Fri. $$ Nelson