000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121537
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A surface trough is from 06N86W to 02N100W. A portion of the 
ITCZ south of the equator extends from 03.4S97W to 02S108W to 
034S117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 02S to 02N between 98W and 107W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Baja California / Gulf of California: Satellite imagery shows a 
small well defined low pressure area moving south of California, 
centered near 31N119W. Ship observations indicate the low has 25 
kt winds near the center. Expect the low to weaken and continue 
moving south over NE forecast waters west of Baja California 
through tonight. Model guidance shows the pressure gradient will 
tighten tonight with embedded bands of freash to strong NW winds 
across the waters north of 29N and in some areas of the central 
gulf. The gradient will relax on tonight and Monday, with gentle 
to moderate NW flow likely.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly winds with seas of 5 to 6 
ft this morning will diminish through evening. A brief pulse of 
fresh to strong winds of limited extent is possible tonight. 
  
Scatterometer data shows fresh northerly winds north of 25N with 
NW swell maintaining 7 to 9 ft seas from 26N to 30N between 117W 
and 124W. These winds will spread south from 21N to 27N tonight. 
The gradient will then relax late tonight with seas subsiding to 
4 to 7 ft on Mon and 3 to 5 ft on Wed. Another round of NW swell 
will arrive Thursday afternoon and spread south to encompass all 
waters west of Baja by Friday night.
  
Light winds and 3 to 6 ft seas forecast elsewhere through Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are within 
120 nm either side of a line from 11.5N86W to 09.5N91W. Although 
winds will diminish later today as the pressure gradient relaxes 
expect fresh to strong nocturnal pulses tonight and Monday. 

Gulf of Panama: A narrow band of strong northerly winds, and 6 
to 9 ft seas extend ssw from 07N80W to 05N81W.  Winds diminish 
to a fresh breeze this afternoon, and a moderate breeze Monday.
  
Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-6 ft are occurring 
elsewhere outside the gap wind events. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong southerly winds will develop in northwest waters N of 28N 
west of 137W later today, with strong to near gale force south 
winds forecast from 30N-32N west of 137W. NW swell will maintain 
6 to 8 ft seas elsewhere w of 115W through Tue, when the focus 
shifts again to the northwest waters, where strong to near gale 
southerly winds will precede a cold front reaching 30N140W early 
Wednesday, accompanied by seas to 16-18 ft.  

$$ 
Mundell