000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A broad surface trough is meandering along the Pacific coast of Colombia and Equador with isolated moderate to strong convection occasionally flaring along the coast. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms near 02N96W and and extends sw to beyond 03.4S111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm either side of a line from 00N94W to 00N104W to 03.4S111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A weakening cold front is passing through the gulf waters between 28N and 29N with moderate nw winds in the wake of the front. Light and variable winds are noted to the s of the front. Expect the front to reach along 27N late today, and then lose identity with the post-frontal high pressure supporting fresh nw flow. The pressure gradient will further tighten tonight with embedded bands of strong nw winds across the waters n of 30N and across the central gulf waters. The gradient will relax on Sun night and Mon with gentle to moderate nw flow forecast. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds with seas of 5 to 8 will persist through mid morning today then diminish to a fresh breeze this afternoon. Strong n winds expected again tonight through mid morning on Mon. Model guidance is hinting at fresh to locally strong n winds briefly on Wed evening in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weakening cold front extending from 28N114W to 25N118W will lose identity later today. Fresh northerly winds are noted to the n of 25N with nw swell maintaining 5 to 8 ft seas from 25N to 30N, and 8 to 10 ft seas from 30N to 32N where strong nw flow is observed. These strong winds will spread s to along 28N this morning, and are expected from 21N to 27N tonight. The gradient will then relax late tonight with seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft on Mon and 3 to 5 ft on Wed. Another round of nw swell will arrive at 30N120W on Thu afternoon, reach the Baja coast n of 28N on Thu night, then spread s across all waters w of Baja through Fri night. Light winds and 3 to 6 ft seas forecast elsewhere across the EPAC waters n of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong ene winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are forecast within 120 nm either side of a line from 11.5N86W to 09.5N90W this morning. Although the pressure gradient will relax later today with winds diminishing to a fresh ne breeze, expect strong nocturnal pulses tonight and again on Mon night. Gulf of Panama: A 120 nm wide band of strong northerly winds, and 6 to 9 ft seas, extend ssw from the western Gulf of Panama to near 04.5N81.5W. The n winds are expected to diminish to a fresh breeze this afternoon, then a moderate breeze on Mon, with another fresh nocturnal wind surge on Mon night. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ne swell originating from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Papagayo extends sw to near 07N97W mixing with long period cross equatorial swell, resulting in combined seas of 7 to 9 ft through tonight. A similar situation extends sw from the Gulf of Panama to along 02N between 81W and 86W, and expected to continue through mid morning today. A frontal trough extending from 25N118W to 21N129W will soon lose identity. Strong southerly winds will develop n of 28N w of 137W today, with strong to near gale force southerly winds forecast from 30N to 32N w of 137W. Nw swell will maintain 6 to 8 ft seas elsewhere across the Epac waters w of 115W through Tue when the focus shifts to the nw waters where strong to near gale southerly winds will precede a cold front reaching 30N140W early Wed accompanied by seas to about 18 ft. $$ Nelson