000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 240 UTC Sun Feb 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... No ITCZ is noted north of the equator. No significant convection is noted either. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Light mostly variable winds are expected through tonight. A weakening cold front expected to move across northern Baja California and the northern Gulf of California tonight and Sunday. This will induce fresh to strong west- northwest winds late Sunday into Monday as the frontal boundary progresses southeast and a low pressure system moves over the northern Gulf. Seas will remain 6 ft or less due to the limited fetch and duration of the winds. Looking ahead, gentle to light winds and slight seas will persist through mid week as high pressure weakens west of the area. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Sunday, with a slightly weaker pulse again late Monday. Looking ahead, light to gentle breezes will follow through mid week, with another round of strong gap winds starting late Thursday. Light breezes off Baja California will increase tonight to fresh behind a cold front moving across the region. In addition, seas to 8 ft in northwest swell are propagating into the area off Baja California Norte. The winds will increase through early Sunday, and winds and swell will spread southward to off Baja California Sur to the north of Cabo San Lazaro. Strong winds will also form off Cabo San Lucas by late Sunday as high pressure builds behind the weakening front. Winds and seas will diminish Monday as the high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, no major changes through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong 20-30 kt NE winds and 8-10 ft seas are occurring within 150 nm either side of a line from 11.5N86W to 09N92W. The resultant northeast swell will mix with long period cross equatorial southwest swell, with combined seas of 7-8 ft propagating to near 06N100W by this evening, then subside afterward. Although the pressure gradient will relax on Sunday and Monday, periods of fresh to strong nocturnal pulses are possible through Monday. Gulf of Panama: A wide swath of strong 20-30 kt northerly winds and 8-11 ft seas extend south-southwest from the western Gulf of Panama to near 03N82W. Little change is expected through Sunday morning. Once the pressure gradient relaxes, brief periods of fresh nocturnal winds are possible Sunday through Tuesday. Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-6 ft are occurring elsewhere outside of the swell originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front is currently analyzed from 30N116W to 22N128W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the front, north of 23N. In addition, altimeter passes indicated seas of 7 to 8 ft across the region north of 20N, due in part to long period northwest swell, in the process of decaying through Sunday. Southerly winds will increase Sunday over the far northwest portions of the discussion area near 30N140W ahead of a frontal boundary located to the northwest of the area. Looking ahead, southwest flow increases to near gale by mid week ahead of the approaching front, as northwest swell of 12 to 18 ft pushes into the far northwest portion of the discussion area. Farther south, a few showers and thunderstorms were active near 07N130W a few hours ago but have since dissipated. This was due in part to convergence of fresh trade winds in that area, where seas are also reaching 8 to 9 ft with an added component of northwest swell. The winds diminish into Sunday, although another push of northwest swell will keep seas to 8 ft from 10N to 20N west of 130W into Monday. $$ CHRISTENSEN