000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ is south of the equator, and lays between 02S and 03.4S from 98W to 110W. There is no significant organized convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Light mostly variable winds are expected through Sunday morning. A weakening cold front expecetd to reach northern Baja California Sunday will induce fresh west-northwest winds in the northern Gulf, with winds becoming fresh northwest further south through Monday morning as the frontal boundary progresses southeast. Another pulse of fresh to strong NW winds is expected north of 30N Monday morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong 20-30 kt northerly winds with 8-10 ft seas occurring within 60 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 13N96W will diminish to a fresh breeze later today. GFS Model guidance shows strong n winds beginning again Thursday eveing. A surface ridge extends se across the far offshore waters. NW swell in the form of 5-8 ft seas are observed north of 27N west of the Baja California Peninsula. These conditions will spread south to near 25N later today as the pressure gradient tightens with fresh to strong NW winds forecast north of 30N late tonight and seas building to 11 ft along 32N. The gradient will relax on Sun with seas subsiding to 4-7 ft, with little change expected afterward into Thursday morning. Another pulse of NW swell will arrive reach the Baja coast north of 28N on Thursday night. Light winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are expected elsewhere north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong 20-30 kt NE winds and 8-10 ft seas are occurring within 150 nm either side of a line from 11.5N86W to 09N92W. The resultant NE swell will mix with long period cross equatorial SW swell, with combined seas of 7-8 ft propagating to near 06N100W by this evening, then subside afterward. Although the pressure gradient will relax on Sunday and Monday, periods of fresh to strong nocturnal pulses are possible through Monday. Gulf of Panama: A wide swath of strong 20-30 kt northerly winds and 8-11 ft seas extend south-southwest from the western Gulf of Panama to near 03N82W. Little change is expected through Sunday morning. Once the pressure gradient relaxes, brief periods of fresh nocturnal winds are possible Sunday through Tuesday. Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-6 ft are occurring elsewhere outside of the swell originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is currently analyzed from 30N119W to 21N131W. Some isolated convection is found near the frontal boundary. NW swell associated with the front is maintaining 7-8 ft seas west of 115W. The front is expected to become diffuse tonight with the nw swell decaying through Sunday. Another round of NW swell will spread into the waters north of 23N west of 136W late tonight. Strong southerly winds will develop north of 28N west of 137W on Sunday, with strong to near gale southerly winds forecast west of a line from 32N134W to 28N140W by Tuesday. $$ Mundell