000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110949
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A surface trough is meandering along the Pacific coast of 
Colombia and Equador from 05N77.5W to 03.4S82W with isolated 
moderate to strong convection occasionally flaring along the 
trough. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms near 
03.4S96W and extends nw to near 01S103W, then turns sw to 
03.4S115W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted 
within 150 nm either side of a line from 03N88W to 02S118W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are expected s of 
30N today while moderate w winds are forecast over the northern 
gulf waters ahead of a cold front that will sweep e across the 
waters n of 29N late tonight followed by brief strong n winds 
and seas building to 5 ft in the open fetch waters. Fresh to 
locally strong nw winds expected across the central gulf waters 
briefly on Sun evening. Another strong nw pulse forecast n of 
31N on Mon morning.    

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly winds 
with seas of 7 to 11 ft are observed within 60 nm either side of 
a line from 16N94.5W to 13N96W, and are forecast to diminish to 
a fresh breeze late this afternoon, and increase again briefly 
to a strong n breeze tonight. Model guidance is hinting at 
strong n winds beginning again on Thu evening in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. 
  
A surface ridge extends se across the far offshore waters. Nw 
swell in the form of 5 to 8 ft seas are observed n of 27N w of 
the Baja California Peninsula. These conditions will spread s to 
along 25N today as the pressure gradient tightens with strong nw 
winds forecast to the n of 29.5N late tonight, with seas 
building to 11 ft along 32N. The gradient will relax on Sun with 
seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft with little change then expected 
through Thu morning. Another round of nw swell will arrive at 
30N120W on Thu afternoon and reach the Baja coast n of 28N on 
Thu night.
  
Light winds and 3 to 6 ft seas forecast elsewhere across the 
EPAC waters n of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force ene winds and 7 to 
10 ft seas are forecast within 150 nm either side of a line from 
11.5N86W to 08N93W this morning. The resultant ne swell will mix 
with long period cross equatorial sw swell, with seas of 8 ft or 
greater propagating sw to near 06N100W this evening before 
beginning to subside. Although the pressure gradient is forecast 
to relax on Sun and Mon, strong nocturnal pulses are expected 
briefly on Sun and Mon nights.   

Gulf of Panama: A 120 nm wide band of strong to near gale force 
northerly winds, and 7 to 11 ft seas, extend ssw from the 
western Gulf of Panama to near 03N82W. little change expected 
through late Sun morning, then the pressure gradient will relax 
with fresh nocturnal winds expected briefly on Sun, Mon and Tue 
nights.
  
Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are 
occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the 
gap events. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front is currently analyzed from 32N119W to 25N127W where 
it becomes stationary to 20N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted within about 90 nm of the cold front segment with fresh 
anticyclonic winds observed w of the front. Post frontal nw 
swell is maintaining 7 to 9 ft seas across the Epac waters w of 
115W. The front is expected to become diffuse tonight with the 
nw swell decaying through Sun, except another round of nw swell 
in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will will spread into the waters 
n of 23n w of 136W tonight. Strong southerly winds will develop 
n of 28N w of 137W on Sun, with strong to near gale force 
southerly winds forecast w of a line from 32N134W to 28N140W on 
Tue.

$$ Nelson