000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 315 UTC Sat Feb 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... There is no ITCZ north of the equator. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 86W and 96W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished as high pressure over the southeast United States shifted eastward. Strong gap winds will persist into Saturday, then diminish further as pressure gradient weakens. A large plume of 8 to 10 ft seas extending nearly 360 nm to the west-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to less than 8 ft through late Saturday as well. A brief pulse of strong gap winds is likely Saturday night into Sunday. Beyond that, no significant gap events are expected through mid week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, weak high pressure west of the Baja California peninsula is maintaining gentle to moderate winds over the region. Although cold front approaching the offshore waters is starting to weaken, a reinforcing front farther west over the Pacific will merge with the dissipating front and move across the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California Saturday through late Sunday. This pattern will support fresh winds off Baja accompanied by decaying long period swell near 8 ft through late Sunday. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds will pulse early Sunday over the northern Gulf of California. Looking ahead, the front will dissipate and the follow on high pressure will weaken into early next week, allowing a return of gentle to moderate winds and seas below 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force winds are forecast over the Gulf of Papagayo through Saturday morning, with seas in the to 8 to 11 ft. The resultant northeast swell will mix with long period cross equatorial southwesterly swell, with seas of 8 ft or greater propagating to near 06N100W on Saturday evening before beginning to subside. The pressure gradient will loosen on Sunday and Monday with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by late Tuesday morning. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong winds prevail over the western Gulf of Panama with seas reaching 8 ft. The pressure gradient will further tighten tonight with strong to near gale force winds expected over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama and seas building to near 11 ft early Saturday. The pressure gradient will relax on Sat night with the winds 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft by Sunday afternoon. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, prevail elsewhere outside of the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from 30N121W to 24N128W, then is stationary to 21N140W. This front will dissipate from west to east through Saturday, ahead of reinforcing front moving south of 30N into Baja California by late Saturday. High pressure building north of the area behind the second front will support fresh trade wind flow south of 15N through Saturday. Long period northwest swell of 8 to 9 ft across most of the area north of 05N and west of 120w will decay below 8 ft through early Saturday, except in some areas of fresh trade wind flow south of 15N. In addition, southerly winds will increase to 20 kt along with 8 ft seas over the northwest portion of the discussion area ahead of a complex low and associated front located to the northwest of the region. Looking ahead, these southerly wind will increase early next week as the front approaches, possibly reaching near gale force by mid week. $$ CHRISTENSEN