000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1443 UTC Thu Feb 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
Strong high pressure will build southward across the eastern
coast of Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday 
night generating a strengthened pressure gradient across the
Chivela Pass. This gradient will lead to the development of near
gale to gale force N-NE winds beginning late Thursday night and
continuing through Friday afternoon. Winds will peak at strong
gale force levels...40 kt...and seas are expected to build to 14
ft at peak of highest winds on Friday morning. See latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
Surface trough from 03N87W to the Equator near 102W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01S102W to 
03S108W to 01S116W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 
06N E of 79W...from 01N to 06N between 86W and 96W...within 90 
nm either side of the trough axis between 96W and 103W...and S 
of 02S between 105W and 109W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong NW winds are ongoing across the central Gulf of 
California between a trough across the western coast of Mexico
and a regional ridge axis extending southward along the spine of
the Baja California peninsula. Seas are likely reaching 7 ft in 
this area. The regional pressure gradient is expected to relax by
tonight as high pressure anchored across the Pacific waters to
the W moves eastward. As a result of the Pacific high moving
eastward...moderate N-NW winds observed W of the coast of Baja 
California will gradually diminish into gentle breeze levels
Friday until a weakening cold front approaches on Saturday
introducing a new round of moderate to occasional fresh N-NW
winds. Seas are expected to remain in a range of 4 to 6 ft
through late Friday night. By Friday night...the approaching
front and associated swell train will arrive within the area
building seas to 8 ft at 30N within NW swell.

See the Special Features section above for information regarding
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. The plume of seas to 9 ft 
with a component of northwest swell will reach 480 nm downstream 
to the west-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
Saturday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The pressure gradient between ridging extending SW from the 
central Atlc to the northern Caribbean Sea and lower pressure 
across the SW Caribbean Sea in combination with overnight 
drainage flow is forecast to support pulses of fresh to strong 
NE winds through the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and 
early morning hours through Monday. Building high pressure N of 
the area across the Gulf of Mexico today will allow for a much 
stronger and longer lasting pulse of gap winds through the Gulf 
of Papagayo from Friday night through Sunday. A plume of seas to
10 ft will reach roughly within 420 nm to the W-SW of the Gulf 
of Papagayo Saturday morning. Finally...fresh to strong N winds 
will materialize across the Gulf of Panama and offshore of the 
Azuero peninsula Friday through Sunday morning with seas building
into a range of 8 to 11 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW portions of the
discussion area from 30N131W to 22N140W. Strong to near gale 
force S-SW winds are occurring N of 28N E of the front within
scattered showers and tstms. Seas in this area are in the range 
of 8-12 ft in NW swell. Similar winds are W of the front N of 
29N with higher seas reaching 16 ft in NW swell. Upper level 
support for the front will lift N of the area tonight...
allowing the front to weaken as it moves eastward toward 120W 
during the next 48 hours. Winds will diminish accordingly with 
seas subsiding gradually as well...generally to 9 ft or below by
Saturday. 

$$
HUFFMAN