000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090247 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 247 UTC Thu Feb 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong broad high pressure will build southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico Thursday night, and southwestward to along the eastern section of Mexico. This will create a tight pressure gradient along southern Mexico that will lead to the development of gale force winds starting late Thursday night through Friday night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The axis of an ill-defined intertropical convergence zone extends along 01N west of 95W. No signficant convection is observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong northwest winds are ongoing over the central Gulf of California between a trough over Mexico and 1018 mb high pressure centered near 26N124W. Seas are likely reaching 6 ft in this area. Similarly moderate to fresh northwest winds are observed off the coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro and west of 115W, with seas to 7 ft. Moderate northwest to north winds are noted elsewhere. The pressure gradient will loosen through Thursday allow winds to diminish across the region. Moderate winds will prevail through the next several days. Long period northwest swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte by late Friday. Please see Special Features for information regarding the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The plume of seas to 9 ft with a component of northwest swell will reach 300 nm downstream to the west- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging extending southwest from the central Atlantic to the western Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and Central America in combination with overnight drainage flow will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast winds through the Gulf of Papagayo during the nighttime hours through Friday. Building high pressure north of the area Thursday will allow for a much stronger pulse and longer lasting of gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo Thursday night into early Friday, with a plume of seas to 8 ft reaching to roughly within 300 nm to the west and southwest of the Gulf of Papagayo with seas reaching a range of 8-9 ft by Friday night. In addition, strong northerly winds will move into the Gulf of Panama and off the Azuero peninsula Friday through Saturday with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving into the far northwest portion of the discussion area, currently reaching from 30N136W to 26N140W. Strong southwest winds and swell of 12 to 16 ft accompany the front, along with areas of showers. 8 to 12 ft seas are noted northwest of a line from 30N130W to 20N140W. Upper support for the front will lift northeast of the area tonight, allow the front to weaken as it moves eastward to 125W over the next 48 hours. Winds will diminish accordingly. Seas will subside as well, although wave heights to 12 ft in northwest swell will linger north of 25N and west of 130W through late Thursday. The remnant northwest swell in excess of 8 ft will propagate across most of the region north of 20N and west of 120W through late Friday, then decay to below 8 ft from west to east over most of this area though Saturday. Farther south into the deep tropics, recent buoy and altimeter data indicate seas are reaching 8 to 9 ft, likely due to local trade winds mixed with longer period northwest swell, from roughly 07N to 10N between 120W and 130W. The trade winds will diminish briefly through the next 12 to 24 hours as the swell decays, allowing these seas to subside below 8 ft. A new round of long period northwest swell will propagate into the south of 20N and west of 125W through late Friday, then subside below 8 ft across the region through early Sunday. $$ CHRISTENSEN