000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 020 UTC Wed Feb 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... No ITCZ, monsoon trough, or significant convection are observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate northwest winds will increase slightly across the central and southern Gulf of California and off the Baja California peninsula tonight between 1023 mb high pressure centered near 28N121W and a trough extending across the lower Colorado River valley into the northern Gulf of California. Seas will reach 5 ft over the Gulf of California by early Wednesday and 5 to 7 ft off Baja California Sur. Troughing deepens across northwest Mexico Wednesday, allowing strong northwest winds over portions of the central and southern Gulf of California from late Wednesday through early Thursday with seas building to 7 ft. The high pressure shifts east, allowing winds and seas to diminish through late Friday across the region. Northwest swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte Friday night with seas to 8 ft, before spreading farther south into the waters off Baja California Sur north of the Cabo San Lazaro Saturday. Northerly winds around 10 to 15 kt through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish further through tonight. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, with gale conditions possible, is expected late Thursday night as strong high pressure builds southward across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a strong cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong gap winds will be the primarily forecast issue through Saturday. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressures over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and Central America in combination with overnight drainage flow will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast winds through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Wednesday night. The high pressure north of the area will strengthen Thursday, allowing a much stronger pulse and longer lasting of gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo Thursday night into early Friday, with a plume of seas to 8 ft reaching 420 nm to the west- southwest of the area. This will be joined by another plume of gap winds off Puerto Sandino on the coast of Nicaragua late Friday, generating a plume of 8 to 10 ft confused seas well to the west of the area, aided in part by components of longer period northwest and southwest swell. Similarly a plume of fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds will reach from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero peninsula of western Panama by late Friday, with a plume of seas to 9 ft in mixed swell reaching as far as 420 nm to the southwest. The ITCZ is setting up farther south closer to equator currently. Aside from occasional overnight convection off the coast of Colombia, no widespread showers or thunderstorms are noted. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong southwest winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft in northwest swell are ongoing over the far northwest portion of the discussion area ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. 1023 high pressure centered near 28N121W will weaken over the next couple of days as the weakening front moves eastward to the north of 15N. Strong to near gale force wind will spread east along and behind the front, eventually covering much of the discussion area from 21N to 30N west of the front by late Wednesday. Jet dynamics aloft are supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the front as well. The winds diminish through Wednesday night as the main support aloft for the front lifts out. Lingering northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft will propagate through the area north of 07N and west of 120W through Thursday night. Farther south, altimeter data and observations from Buoy 43010 were confirming the presence of 8 to 9 ft seas south of 13N, likely due to a mix of local trade winds and longer period northwest swell. Scattered showers were noted near 06N130W as well but this has since dissipated. $$ CHRISTENSEN