000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060957 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N100W to 02N120W to 04N130W, it then resumes west of a surface trough from 03N133W to 01N140W. No significant convection noted along the ITCZ. A surface trough is within the ITCZ extending from 9.5N130W to 03N132W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 122W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A plume of fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds persists N of 14N between 94W and 96W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts to the NE, winds across the SW Gulf will veer to the SE. As a result, winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday evening. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, with gale conditions possible, is expected by Thursday night. High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 26N121W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and weak trough over the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Seas over this area are in the 4-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds and seas 2 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate winds and seas 4-6 ft prevail off the southwest coast of Mexico. The area of high pressure will build slightly over the next couple of days while it prevails nearly stationary. The trough over the Gulf of California will also deepen, thus resulting in fresh to locally strong winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula as well as portions of the Gulf of California by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE United States and low pressure along W Colombia and adjacent waters in the Caribbean and the E Pacific is supporting fresh to near gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. The area of high pressure will move NE to the mid Atlantic waters Monday night, which will weaken the pressure gradient and as a result the winds at Papagayo. However, fresh to strong winds are forecast to pulse during the night hours through the end of the week. A brief pulsing of fresh to strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Panama through early this morning. The next gap event in this region is expected during the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, associated with the aforementioned high pressure, continue to dominate the north waters. Long period NW swell continue to impact the NW waters where seas are currently in the 8-11 ft range. This swell event with a leading edge period of 17 to 18 seconds will reach from Los Cabos to the Equator at 129W Monday night, and the Revillagigedo Islands by early Tuesday morning. A tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressure N of the ITCZ associated with a surface trough with axis near 132W is supporting an area of fresh to strong trades west of the trough from 07N to 12N. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to about 16N elsewhere west of 120W. These marine conditions are forecast to continue through Wednesday. A deep low pressure center will develop northwest of the forecast area over the next couple of days. The pressure gradient over the northwest waters will tighten between this area of low pressure and building high pressure over the northern forecast waters. This will result in an increase in winds and building seas. Winds are expected to reach strong to near gale force over the northwest waters by this evening with seas building to near 13 ft. The area of low pressure will lift out to the northeast, crossing near 32N140W by this evening. A tight pressure gradient is forecast to persist across the NW corner through early Thursday as another deep low pressure system and associated cold front approaches from the west. This will maintain strong to near gale force southerly winds and seas up to 15-16 ft over the NW waters. The associated cold front is forecast to enter the NW part of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, reaching from 30N136W to 24N140W. At that time, expect fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. $$ Ramos