000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060231 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N100W to 01N115W to 02N113W to 06N131W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N to 12N between 123W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The most recent scatterometer pass shows winds below gale force across the Gulf of Tehunatepec. A plume of fresh to strong N-NE winds persists within 45 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 14.5N95W to 12N98W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward, winds across the SW Gulf will veer to the SE. As a result, winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday evening. High pressure of 1019 mb centered near 27N121W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and weak trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range based on an altimeter pass. Light to gentle winds and seas 2 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate winds and seas 4-6 ft prevail off the southwest coast of Mexico. The area of high pressure will build slightly over the next couple of days while the trough deepens over western Mexico. This will increase winds to fresh to locally strong off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula as well as portions of the Gulf of California by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the southeast United States and the equatorial trough over the eastern north Pacific is supporting fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. The area of high pressure will weaken over the next couple of days which will help loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below advisory criteria over the Gulf of Papagayo by midweek. A brief pulsing of fresh to strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Panama late tonight before winds fall to 20 kt or less early Monday. Otherwise, light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, associated with the aforementioned high pressure, dominates the north waters. An area of fresh to strong southerly winds is noted N of 28N between 128W AND 132W ahead of a dissipating cold front. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 13N and west of 132W, and moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to about 18N elsewhere west of 120W. These marine conditions are forecast to continue through Tuesday night. Long period NW swell continue to impact the NW waters where seas are currently in the 8-11 ft range. This swell event with a leading edge period of 17 to 18 seconds will reach from Los Cabos to the Equator at 128W by Monday night, and the Revillagigedo Islands by Tuesday morning. A deep low pressure center will develop northwest of the forecast area over the next couple of days. The pressure gradient over the northwest waters will tighten between this area of low pressure and building high pressure over the northern forecast waters. This will result in an increase in winds and building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale force over the northwest waters by early Tuesday morning with seas building to near 15 ft. The area of low pressure will lift out to the northeast, crossing near 32N140W by Monday evening. A tight pressure gradient is forecast to persist across the NW corner through Wednesday as another deep low pressure system approaches from the west. This will maintain strong to near gale force southerly winds and seas up to 15-16 ft over the NW waters. The associated cold front is forecast to enter the NW part of the forecast area by Wednesday evening reaching from 30N138W to 26N140W. At that time, expect fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. $$ GR