000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N94W to 01N115W to 04N126W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 121W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The most recent scatterometer pass shows winds below gale force across the Gulf of Tehunatepec. A plume of fresh to strong winds persists within 45 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 14.5N95W to 12N98W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward, winds across the SW Gulf will veer to the SE. As a result, winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday evening. High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 28N121W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and weak troughing over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 ft range in northwesterly swell. Light to gentle winds and seas 2 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate winds and seas 4-6 ft prevail off the southwest coast of Mexico. The area of high pressure will build slightly over the next couple of days while troughing deepens over western Mexico. This will increase winds to fresh to locally strong off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula as well as portions of the Gulf of California by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the southeast United States and the equatorial trough over the eastern north Pacific is supporting fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. The area of high pressure will weaken over the next couple of days which will help loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below advisory criteria over the Gulf of Papagayo by midweek. A brief pulsing of fresh to strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Panama late tonight before winds fall to 20 kt or less early Monday. Otherwise, light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, associated with the aforementioned high pressure, dominates the north waters. An area of fresh to strong southerly winds is noted N of 28N between 128W AND 132W ahead of a dissipating cold front. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 13N and west of 132W, and moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 20N elsewhere west of 120W. These marine conditions are forecast to continue through Tuesday night. The cold front has ushered in a fresh set of northwesterly swell over the northwest waters, where seas are currently in the 8-11 ft range. A deep low pressure center will develop northwest of the forecast area over the next couple of days. The pressure gradient over the northwest waters will tighten between this area of low pressure and building high pressure over the northern forecast waters. This will result in an increase in winds and building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale force over the northwest waters by early Tuesday morning with seas building to near 15 ft. The area of low pressure will lift out to the northeast toward the end of the week. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds over the northwest waters, with seas starting to slowly subside. $$ GR