000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051529
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 UTC Sun Feb 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ extends from 03.5N94W to 01N115W to 04N126W to beyond
03N140W. A cluster of moderate convection is north of the ITCZ 
from 06N to 17N west of 120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The combination of high pressure weakening and shifting eastward
along with veering winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico had
diminished winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds have fallen below gale force and will 
continue to diminish over the next day. Winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday 
evening.

High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 29N122W extends a ridge 
southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and weak troughing over the Gulf of
California is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly 
winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Seas
over this area are in the 5-7 ft range in northwesterly swell W.
Light to gentle winds and seas 2 ft or less prevail over the 
Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate winds and seas 4-6 
ft prevail off the southwest coast of Mexico. The area of high
pressure will build slightly over the next couple of days while
troughing deepens over western Mexico. This will increase winds 
to fresh to locally strong off the west coast of the Baja 
California peninsula as well as portions of the Gulf of 
California by midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the
southeast United States and the equatorial trough over the
eastern north Pacific is supporting fresh to strong gap winds
over the Gulf of Papagayo. The area of high pressure will weaken
over the next couple of days which will help loosen the pressure
gradient and diminish winds below advisory criteria over the Gulf
of Papagayo by midweek. A brief pulsing of fresh to strong winds
are expected over the Gulf of Panama late tonight before winds
fall to 20 kt or less early Monday. Otherwise, light and 
variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Relatively weak high pressure prevails over the northern waters,
except for a dissipating cold front over the far northwest waters.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh 
to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 16N and west of 130W,
and moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 20N elsewhere 
west of 120W. These marine conditions are forecast to continue 
through Tuesday night. The cold front has ushered in a fresh set
of northwesterly swell over the northwest waters, where seas are
currently in the 8-10 ft range. Seas will peak near 11 ft today
over this area. 

The cold front will dissipate today. A deep low pressure center
will develop northwest of the forecast area over the next couple
of days. The pressure gradient over the northwest waters will 
tighten between this area of low pressure and building high 
pressure over the northern forecast waters. This will result in 
an increase in winds and building seas. Winds are expected to 
reach near gale force over the northwest waters by early Tuesday
morning with seas building to near 15 ft. The area of low
pressure will lift out to the northeast toward the end of the
week. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds
over the northwest waters, with seas starting to slowly subside. 

$$
AL