000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and the ITCZ over the eastern north Pacific is supporting minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. The ridge will slightly weaken later this morning, which will relax the pressure gradient, thus diminishing winds below gale force. Near gale force winds will prevail through Sunday night. On Monday morning a ridge anchored over the SE CONUS would have moved NE to North Carolina, resulting in veering winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico further diminishing winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This will lead to 20 kt or less winds late Monday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 01S81W to 05S92W. The ITCZ extends from 03N94W to 02N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S to 08S E of 85W. A cluster of moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N to 20N W of 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb centered near 30N123W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-8 ft in NW swell W of the western coast of the Baja California peninsula N of 25N. Light to gentle winds and seas generally under 2 ft prevail over the Gulf of California. During the next 24 hours, the high pressure center will move SE to a position near 25N120W. Seas are forecast to subside to 6-7 ft later this morning. Looking ahead, marine guidance indicates increasing winds to 15-20 kt Tuesday and Wednesday across the offshore waters, mainly N of 22N. Winds will also increase over the central Gulf of California to 20-25 kt Wednesday night through Thursday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The strong trade winds in the southwest Caribbean Sea will continue to funnel through the Central America gap regions to extend into the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. The gap wind event in the Gulf of Papagayo is forecast to persist through Wednesday, with winds reaching 25 kt and seas building in and downstream of the Gulf to 9 ft. Northerly winds in the 20-25 kt range will continue to blow into the Gulf of Panama through Monday morning. Northerly winds of 15-20 kt are expected thereafter. Otherwise, light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Relatively weak high pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 16N. Latest scatterometer data indicate some small areas of near gale force winds in the aforementioned region. Seas of 8-10 ft are within the area of the trades based on recent altimeter passes. These marine conditions are forecast to continue through Monday night. A dissipating cold front will push into the far northwest waters later this morning supporting fresh to strong winds ahead of it N of 28N. The front is forecast to move N of the area tonight. The front will also bring a new set of NW swell propagating into the forecast region, with seas peaking near 11 ft today. A stronger cold front is forecast to approach from the west Monday and Tuesday. This front will be associated to a deep low pressure center. The strong pressure gradient related to this system will reach the NW corner of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, with increasing winds and building seas. Currently, marine guidance indicates S-SW of 20-30 kt and seas up to 15-16 ft near 30N140W. $$ NR