000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041510 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1330 UTC Sat Feb 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and the equatorial trough over the eastern north Pacific is supporting minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The ridge will weaken over the next 24 hours, which will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below gale force by Sunday afternoon. Veering winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week will further diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and winds are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less late Monday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 02N90W to 01N104W. The ITCZ extends from 01N104W to 03N116W to 03N126W to 05N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb centered near 30N124W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over western mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail over the waters off southwest Mexico, while light to gentle winds and seas in the 1-2 ft range prevail over the Gulf of California. Long period northwest swell will propagate into the waters off the western coast of Baja California Norte with seas building to near 8 ft today. Seas will subside below 8 ft Sunday. Otherwise, the same general conditions will prevail through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1035 mb centered over the eastern united States and the equatorial trough over the eastern north Pacific will help for pulsing of winds over the Gulf of Papagayo the next few nights. Winds will peak near 25 kt during the late night and early morning hours, and diminish to 20 kt or less during the early evening hours. Winds will also pulse to 25 kt over the Gulf of Panama the next couple of nights before diminishing to 20 kt or less early next week. Otherwise, light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Relatively weak high pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N. Seas in the 7-9 ft range prevail over this area, mainly in northwesterly swell. The same general pattern will continue over the next few days maintaining these conditions...with locally stronger winds. A cold front will push into the far northwest waters Sunday morning. This cold front will not make it very far into the area before dissipating. The main impact of this front will be northwesterly swell propagating into the area, with seas peaking near 11 ft Sunday. Looking ahead...a stronger cold front is expected to move into the northwest waters midweek. This front will be accompanied by increasing winds and a larger northwesterly swell, with seas building to near 15 ft. $$ AL