000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong high pressure building southward across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains will tighten the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec through Sunday. This will generate minimal gale force north to northeast winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours through Sunday morning. Max seas in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 12-13 ft early on Saturday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 02N89W to 01.5N95W to 03N102W. The ITCZ axis extends from 03N112W to 02N122W to 07N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered west of Baja California near 27N121W. The high is maintaining mainly light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and seas of 4-7 ft...except for moderate NW to N winds within 200 nm of the Baja coast between 24N and 28N. Light to gentle NW winds prevail across the Gulf of California. The high will move little through the middle of next week and strengthen slightly during the first half of next week. The tightening pressure gradient between the high and a surface trough over Baja will support moderate to fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California and across much of the waters west of Baja California Peninsula through Monday. Another surface trough developing farther east over mexico will cause NW winds to become moderate to fresh over the Gulf of California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Long period northwest swell will continue to maintain combined seas above 8 ft north of 28N until Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong winds in the southwest Caribbean Sea will continue to induce fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, mainly during overnight and early morning hours, with max seas reaching 7-8 ft downstream from each source region. The gap wind event in the Gulf of Papagayo is forecast to persist through early next week while in the Gulf of Panama will persist through Sunday morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are aslo expected across the Gulf of Fonseca and downstrean to near 89W by Saturday morning. Otherwise, Light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure, with a couple of 1021 mb centers, dominates the north waters, and extends a ridge to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing an increase in the trade wind flow. The most recent scatterometer data showed an area of 20-25 kt NE-E winds from 11N to 14N between 116W AND 126W. Seas of 8-9 ft are noted within the area of the trades. In addition, an area of sea heights of 8-9 ft will persist roughly betwen 05N-15N and W of 110w due to a mix of NW swell and shorter period northeast swell. The next cold front will reach the far NW corner Saturday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the NW waters by Sunday morning. Fresh to strong westerly winds and a new set of long period NW swell, with building seas up to 12 ft, will follow the front. $$ GR