000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1328 UTC Fri Feb 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong high pressure building southward across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains will tighten the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec through Sunday. This will generate minimal gale force north to northeast winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours through Sunday morning. Max seas in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 12-14 ft early on Saturday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 05N82W to 03N100W. The ITCZ axis continues from 03N100W to 01N111W to 03N125W to 02N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 05N85W to 02N95W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N106W to 03N115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered west of Baja California near 27N121W. The high is maintaining mainly light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and seas of 4-7 ft...except for moderate NW to N winds within 200 nm of the Baja coast between 24N and 28N. Light to gentle NW winds prevail across the Gulf of California. The high will move little through the middle of next week and strengthen slightly during the first half of next week. The tightening pressure gradient between the high and a surface trough over Baja will support moderate to fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California across much of the waters west of Baja California Peninsula through Monday. Another surface trough developing farther east over mexico will cause NW winds to become moderate to fresh over the Gulf of California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Long period northwest swell will continue to maintain combined seas above 8 ft north of 28N until Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure north of central America will maintain a strong pressure gradient over the western Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, with max associated seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. The gap wind event in the Gulf of Papagayo is forecast to persist through Wednesday next week while the event in the Gulf of Panama will wind down more quickly early on Saturday morning. Otherwise, Light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating stationary front enters the forecast waters near 30N124W and continues to 25N129W. Northwest swell generated behind this boundary while it was still a cold front continue to propagate into the NW portion of the discussion area. Combined seas of 8 to 13 ft are found west of a line from 30N121W to 25N127W to 22N140W. The front will finish dissipating today. Seas associated with the front will subside below 8 ft on Sunday morning. The next cold front will reach 30N140W Saturday night. A new set of long period NW swell will cause seas in this area to build to 11 ft on Sunday and Sunday night. Seas will be highest near 30N140W. Between 07N and 20N, a mix of NW swell and shorter period northeast swell will maintaining 8 to 9 ft seas west of 120W. The trade winds will gradually increase west of 127W by Sunday as high pressure builds across the subtropics. This will maintain combined seas of 8-11 ft in this region. $$ cam