000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Strong high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico 
and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains through 
Saturday will tighten the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec. This will induce minimal gale force northerly winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly during the overnight 
and early morning hours through Sunday morning. Max seas in the 
vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 12-13 ft by early 
Saturday morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A trough axis extends from 08N82W to 03N90W to 02N99W. The ITCZ 
axis continues from 02N99W to 03N120W to 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 05N E of 92W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure center off Baja California near 27N120W 
is maintaining mainly light to gentle winds across the offshore 
waters with seas of 4-7 ft...except for moderate NW flow off the 
Baja California Norte. Light to gentle NW winds also dominate 
across the Gulf of California...except at the central basin 
where moderate NW flow is noted. The high pressure will slightly 
move W over the next 24 hours and then to the NE Sunday while it 
slightly strengthens. This will result in a tight pressure 
gradient between the high and a surface trough over the Gulf of 
California that will support northerly moderate to fresh winds 
across much of the waters west of Baja California Peninsula 
through early Sunday morning. Long period northwest swell will 
continue to impact the offshore waters N of 22N through Saturday 
with seas building to 8 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale force winds in the SW Caribbean Sea will 
continue to induce fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama, mainly during overnight and early morning 
hours, with max seas reaching 7-8 ft downstream from each source 
region. The gap wind event in the Gulf of Papagayo is forecast 
to persist through Wednesday next week while in the Gulf of 
Panama will persist through early Saturday morning. Fresh to 
locally strong NE winds are also expected across the Gulf of 
Fonseca and downstream to near 89W by Saturday morning.

Light and variable winds with 4-5 ft seas will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Deep low pressure system centered near 41N132W continues to move 
away from the region, allowing winds to diminish in northern 
waters. An associated dissipating cold front enter the forecast 
waters near 30N124W to 27N125W where it stalls to 23N131W. 
Northwest swell with combined seas of 8 to 13 ft remains in the 
wake of the front. The front is forecast to totally dissipate 
today and seas will subside to 8-10 ft across the waters N of 
20N. S of 20N, a mix of northwest swell with shorter period 
northeast swell from the trade winds is maintaining 8 to 9 ft 
seas west of 120W. The trade winds will gradually increase west 
of 127W by Sunday as high pressure builds across the subtropics, 
maintaining combined seas of 8-10 ft. 

The next cold front will reach the far NW corner Saturday night.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front 
over the NW waters by Sunday morning through the night hours. 
Fresh to strong SW winds and a new set of long period NW swell, 
with building seas up to 13-14 ft, will follow the front.

$$
NR