000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Feb 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains through Saturday will tighten the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. This will induce minimal gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours through Saturday night. Max seas in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 12-13 ft by early Saturday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 07N81W to 04N90W to 02N110W. The ITCZ axis continues from 02N110W to 05N129W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 04N between 85W and 89W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure center off Baja California near 28N120W is maintaining light to gentle winds across the offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. Mainly light to gentle NW winds are also noted across the Gulf of California. The high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours, then move toward the NW in about 48 hours while slightly strengthen. As a result, northerly winds in the 10-15 kt range will dominate much of the waters west of Baja California Peninsula Friday and Saturday. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected across the southern half of the Gulf of California tonight and Friday. Long period northwest swell will continue to impact the offshore waters with additional pulses reaching the area on Saturday. Seas are forecast to build to 7-8 ft N of 28N tonight into Friday, and again Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday night, seas of 8 ft will affect the waters N of 22N W of 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong winds in the southwest Caribbean Sea will continue to induce fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, mainly during overnight and early morning hours, with max seas reaching 7-8 ft downstream from each source region. The gap wind event in the Gulf of Papagayo is forecast to persist through early next week while in the Gulf of Panama will persist through Friday morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are aslo expected across the Gulf of Fonseca and downstrean to near 89W by Saturday morning. Light and variable winds with 4-5 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep low pressure system centered near 40N135W continues to move away from the region, allowing winds to diminish in northern waters. The associated cold front has stall this evening and extends from 30N123W to 18N135W. Northwest swell with combined seas of 10 to 13 ft are still noted, per three antimeter passes, in the wake of the front. The front is forecast to totally dissipate by late Friday with seas subsiding to 8-11 ft across the N waters. Farther south, a mix of northwest swell with shorter period northeast swell from the trade winds is maintaing 8 to 9 ft seas from 05N to 20N west of 125W. The trade winds will gradually increase west of 125W by Sunday as high pressure builds across the subtropics, maintaining combined seas of 8-9 ft. The next cold front will reach the far NW corner Saturday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the NW waters by Sunday morning. Fresh to strong westerly winds and a new set of long period NW swell, with building seas up to 13-14 ft, will follow the front. $$ GR