000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022157
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Strong high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico 
and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains through 
Saturday will tighten the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec. This will induce minimal gale force northerly winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly during the overnight 
and early morning hours through Saturday night. Max seas in the
vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 12-13 ft by early
Saturday morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A trough axis extends from 09N85W to 05N93W to 03N98W. The ITCZ 
axis continues from 03N98W to 02N110W to 05N130w to 03N140W. 
No significant convection is noted. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure center off Baja California near 28N120W 
is maintaining light to gentle winds across the offshore waters 
with seas of 3-5 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are also noted 
across the Gulf of California. The high pressure will remain 
nearly stationary over the next 24-48 hours while slightly 
strengthen. By Friday, northerly winds in the 10-15 kt range will
dominate much of the waters west of Baja California Peninsula. 
Winds will further increase to 15-20 kt on Saturday as the 
pressure gradient slightly tighten. Long period northwest swell 
will continue to impact the offshore waters with additional 
pulses reaching the area on Saturday. As a result, seas are 
forecast to build to 7-8 ft N of 28N tonight, and again Friday 
night into Saturday. By Saturday night, seas of 8 ft will affect 
the waters N of 22N W of 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong winds in the southwest Caribbean Sea will continue to 
induce fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and 
Panama, mainly during overnight and early morning hours, with 
max seas reaching 7-8 ft downstream from each source region. 
Light and variable winds with 4-5 ft seas will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Deep low pressure system centered near 40N135W continues to move
away from the region, allowing winds to diminish in northern 
waters. The associated cold front reaches from 30N125W to 
22N132W where it begins to dissipate. Northwest swell with 
combined seas of 9 to 13 ft are still noted in the wake of the 
front. The front is forecast to totally dissipate by late Friday
with seas subsiding to 8-11 ft across the N waters. Farther 
south, a mix of northwest swell with shorter period northeast 
swell from trade winds is maintaing 8 to 9 ft seas from 05N to 
20N west of 125W. The trade winds will gradually increase west of
125W by Sunday as high pressure builds across the subtropics, 
maintaining combined seas of 8-9 ft. 

$$
GR