000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong high pressure building over the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday will tighten the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and induce minimal gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during peak nocturnal drainage flow between 0300-1200 UTC. Expect 35 kt peak winds early Friday and again early Saturday, with peak winds dropping to 30 kt Sat night and 25 kt Sun night. Max seas in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 12-13 ft by early Saturday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 05N86W to 02N108W. The ITCZ axis continues from 02N108W across the equator to 03S120W. No significant convection indicated this morning. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered west of Baja California is maintaining light to gentle winds across the offshore waters with 4-5 ft seas. Light winds are also noted across the Gulf of California. The high will remain nearly stationary during the next 24-48 hours and strengthen slightly. By Friday, 10 to 15 kt northerly winds will dominate the waters west of Baja California. Winds will strengthen Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens. Long period northwest swell will continue to impact the far offshore waters with additional pulses reaching the area Saturday. Seas are expected to build to 7-8 ft N of 28N through Saturday. By Saturday night, 7-8 ft seas affect waters N of 22N W of 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong winds in the southwest Caribbean Sea will continue to induce fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, mainly during overnight and early morning hours, with max seas reaching 7 ft downstream from each source region. Light and variable winds with 4-5 ft seas will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep low pressure centered near 40N135W continues to move away from the region, allowing winds to diminish in northern waters. A weak stationary front from 30N126W to 16N140W will dissipate by tonight as upper support shifts northeast. 8-13 ft northwest swell will persist north of 24N and west of 125W into Friday, eventually decaying to 8-9 ft west of 130W Saturday. Farther south, a mix of northwest swell with shorter period northeast swell from trade winds is maintaining 8-9 ft seas east of 130W. Trade winds will gradually increase west of 125W by Sunday as high pressure builds across the subtropics, maintaining combined seas of 8-9 ft. Trade wind convergence and increased deep layer moisture will lead to scattered shower activity from 10N to 15N west of 130W by Sunday. $$ Mundell