000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020823 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 823 UTC Thu Feb 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will increase to minimal gale force tonight persisting through Sunday night. Seas in and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach up to 12-13 ft by early Saturday morning. This gap wind event will be associated with a building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains behind a cold front forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico Friday night through Saturday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 05N89W to 01N110W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 01N110w to 05N125W to 02N140W. No significant convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure center off Baja California is maintaining light to gentle winds across the offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are also noted across the Gulf of California. The high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next 24-48 hours while slightly strengthen. By Friday, northerly winds in the 10-15 kt range will dominate much of the waters west of Baja California Peninsula. Winds will further increase to 15-20 kt on Saturday as the pressure gradient slightly tighten. Long period northwest swell will continue to impact the offshore waters with additional pulses reaching the area on Saturday. As a result, seas are forecast to build to 8 ft N of 28N tonight, and again Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday night, seas of 8 ft will affect the waters N of 22N W of 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force winds in the southwest Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, with seas reaching near 8 ft downstream of the Gulfs. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft will continue elsewhere outside of the gap wind regions. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep low pressure north of the area continues to move northeast and away from the region, allowing winds to diminish north of 28N. An associated cold front reaches from 30N126W to 17N140W will shift eastward and weaken through Friday as the main upper support shifts away from the area. Northwest swell with combined seas of 8 to 12 ft persists north of 22N into Friday, eventually decaying to 8 to 9 ft and propagating east of 130W Saturday. Farther south, a mix of northwest swell with shorter period northeast swell from trade winds is maintaining 8 to 9 ft seas from 08N to 22N east of 130W. The trade winds will gradually increase from 08N to 15N west of 125W by Sunday as high pressure builds to the north across the subtropics, maintaining combined seas of 8 to 9 ft. Trade wind convergence and increased deep layer moisture will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 15N west of 130W by Sunday. $$ CHRISTENSEN