000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020249
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong north winds will begin to surge 
again across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Thursday morning. 
Then, winds will further increase to minimal gale force Thursday 
night persisting through Sunday night. Seas in and downstream of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach up to 12-13 ft by early 
Saturday morning. This gap wind event will be associated with a 
building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
mountains behind a cold front forecast to move across the Gulf of
Mexico Friday night through Saturday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A trough axis extends from 05N89W to 02N100W to 02N107W. The 
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 02N107W to 
03N115W to 06N122W, then resumes from 05N125W to 02N140W. No 
significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure center of 1020 mb located near 29N119W 
extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system
is supporting light to gentle winds across the offshore waters W
of Baja California with seas of 3-5 ft. Mainly light to gentle 
winds are also noted across the Gulf of California. The high
pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next 24-48 
hours while slightly strengthen. By Friday, northerly winds in
the 10-15 kt range will dominate much of the waters W of Baja
California Peninsula. Winds will further increase to 15-20 kt on
Saturday as the pressure gradient slightly tighten. Long period
NW swell will continue to impact the offshore waters with
additional pulses reaching the area on Saturday. As a result,
seas are forecast to build to 8 ft N of 28N Thursday night, and 
again Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday night, seas of 8 ft
will affect the waters N of 22N W of 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale force winds in the southwest Caribbean Sea 
will continue to support fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs 
of Papagayo and Panama, mainly during the overnight and early
morning hours, with seas reaching near 8 ft downstream of the 
Gulfs. 

Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft will 
continue elsewhere outside of the gap wind regions. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A tight pressure gradient associated with a deep 986 mb low 
pressure area centered north of area near 38N137W is supporting 
fresh to strong SW-W winds across the NW waters, particularly N 
of 27N and west of a cold front that extends from 30N127W to 
22N132W to 17N140W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are aslo 
noted per scatterometer data N of 26N E of front to about 125W. 
The front will reach a position from 30N125W to 24N130W to 
17N140W by Thursday evening. The southern portion of the front 
will stall and weaken by Friday. NW swell in the wake of the 
front will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters 
with combined seas currently reaching 14 to 17 ft west of the 
front and within the area of the strongest winds. This swell 
event will dominate much of the region west of 120W by late 
Thursday. Older swell south of 10N will continue to subside while
merge with the new swell event by Friday. 

$$
GR