000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012154
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2010 UTC Wed Feb 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong north winds 
will begin to surge again across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by 
early Thursday morning. Then, winds will further increase to 
minimal gale force Thursday night through Saturday night. Seas 
in and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 8 to 11 
ft with each pulse of gale force winds.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A trough axis extends from 04N88W to 02N96W to 02N106W. The 
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 02N106W to 
05N119W, then resumes from 05N121W to 01N140W. No significant
convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1020 mb located near 29N119W is supporting
gentle to moderate breezes across the area, including the Gulf 
of California. Seas are mostly 4 to 6 ft across the open waters. 
Northwest swell will move into the waters off Baja California 
Norte late Thursday through Saturday with seas building to 8 ft N
of 28N and west of Guadalupe Island, then subsiding Sunday.

Looking ahead, moderate northerly winds along the coast of Baja 
California will increase to 15 to 20 kt by early Saturday as high
pressure builds west of the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong trade winds through the southwest Caribbean Sea will
promote pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulfs of
Papagayo and Panama, mainly at night, over the next 48 hours 
with seas reaching near 8 ft downstream of the Gulfs. 

Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, will
continue elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the 
gap wind regions. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A tight pressure gradient associated with a deep 990 mb low 
pressure area centered north of area near 37N137W is supporting 
fresh to strong SW-W winds across the NW waters, particularly N
of 27N and west of a cold front that extends from 30N128W to 
23N132W to 18N140W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are aslo 
noted per scatterometer data N of 26N E of front to about 125W. 
The front will reach a position from 30N125W to 24N130W to 
18N140W by early Thursday afternoon. The southern portion of the 
front will stall and weaken by Friday. NW swell in the wake of 
the front will continue to propagate SE across the forecast 
waters with combined sea heights currently reaching 14 to 17 ft 
west of the front. This swell event will dominate much of the 
region west of 120W by late Thursday. Older swell south of 10N 
will continue to subside while merge with the new swell event by 
Friday. 

$$
GR