000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010808
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
808 UTC Wed Feb 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
associated with a deep 990 mb low pressure area is centered near
35N141W is supporting winds to gale force behind a cold front
reaching from 30N131W to 19N140W. Winds will diminish below gale
force over the next several hours as the low pressure moves
northeastward, but large, long period northwest swell will
continue to propagate into the region with combined sea heights
reaching 12 to 18 ft west of the front. The front will weaken as
it shifts slowly eastward through Thursday. Winds will diminish
to 15 to 20 kt from 28N to 30N between 130W and 140W into
Thursday, but lingering swell will keep seas to 12 to 15 ft. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong gap winds will pulse
through the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next couple of nights.
Strong high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday
will allow gap winds to reach gale force by Thursday night,
diminishing to just below gale force Friday, before pulsing again
to minimal gale force Friday night. Seas in and downstream of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 8 to 10 ft Friday. Another pulse
of gale force winds Friday will allow seas to build to 8 to 12 ft
into Saturday, aided in part by northwest swell. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A surface trough extends from 03N90W to 01N103W. The 
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N130W to 
06N135W to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1020 mb located just west of the offshore 
zones near 27N121W is supporting gentle to moderate breezes 
across area, to include the Gulf of California. Seas are mostly
4-6 ft in open waters. A new round of northwest swell will move 
into the waters off Baja California Norte late Thursday into 
Friday with seas of 4 to 6 ft, building to 8 ft N of 28N and west
of Guadalupe Island then subsiding. Looking ahead, moderate 
northerly winds along the coast of Baja California will increase 
to 15 to 20 kt by early Saturday as high pressure builds west of 
the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong trade winds through the southwest Caribbean Sea will
promote pulses of strong mainly overnight gap winds through the 
Gulf of Papagayo and off Puerto Sandino Nicaragua over the next 
several nights. The duration of these pulses will be a few hours,
but seas may reach 8 ft downstream. In addition, fresh gap winds
will pulse through the Gulf of Panama each evening, with strong
winds occasionally off the Azuero peninsula and outside the Gulf
of Panama. 

Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, will
continue elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the 
gap wind regions. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A Gale Warning is in effect for the northwest waters of the
discussion area in association with a cold front. See Special 
Features section above for details. 

Otherwise, a couple of weak surface troughs are noted east of 
the ITCZ between 110W and 130W. Aside from the winds and seas
west of the front, northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft covers the area
from 07N to 30N between 125W and 140W. This will encompass much
of the region west of 120W by late Thursday. Older swell south of
20N will subside below 8 ft Friday and Saturday except in areas
of fresh trade winds. Meanwhile 8 to 10 ft swell will persist
over much of the area from 20N to 30N through Saturday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN