000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301612
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong gale force wind event 
continues across and well downstream of the gulf today. Maximum 
winds overnight were estimated to 45 kt but have since 
diminished to 40 kt, with maximum seas subsiding very slightly 
to near 20 ft downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, in a mix of 
local wind waves and longer period northwest swell. Combined 
seas of 8 ft or greater reach well downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec to near 08N101W. Gap winds will diminish below gale 
force by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure north of the area 
weakens. Strong gap winds will persist through the remainder of 
the week, but with 8 to 10 ft seas.

Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Vigorous deep layer low pressure 
area continues as a winter storm system across the NE Pacific 
this morning, located NW of the area. An associated cold front 
is moving E-SE ahead of the low and has reach the far NW corner 
of the discussion area near 30N140W. Southwest winds ahead of 
the front have increase to gale force within 90-120 nm east of 
the front, where seas are running 12 to 15 ft with NW swell from 
the low. The gale force winds will diminish to 25-30 kt late 
this afternoon as supporting upper energy lifts northeast. 
However, large northwest swell will continue to accompany this 
front, which is expected to reach a position from 30N135W to 
24N140W tonight, and from 30N130W to 20N140W Tuesday night. 
Winds will briefly increase again to gale force near 30N140W 
early Tuesday as reinforcing cold air pushes into the region. 
The front will weaken as it continues eastward across the waters 
north of 20N through mid week. The northwest swell will bring 
combined seas heights in excess of 8 ft to most of the region 
west of 120W through mid week...with maximum seas to 20 ft by 
Tuesday near the area of gales.

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ reaches from 02N101W to low pres near 05N108W 1012 MB 
to 09N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 127W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section above for gale conditions in and
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gulf of California: 20 to 25 kt northwest winds across the area 
north of 27N are forecast to diminish to a fresh breeze by 
afternoon, then further diminish to 20 kt or less by evening. 
Seas will subside accordingly to less than 8 ft by late morning.
Light to gentle breezes are then expected through mid week.

Other than the strong gales near and downstream of Tehuantepec,
moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas in
northwest swell.  
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong high pressure north of the region will support pulses of 
fresh to strong east-northeast winds through mid week primarily 
through the Gulf of Papagayo, but also out of the Gulf of Fonseca
and Gulf of Panama. Seas will reach 8 to 10 ft downstream of the 
Gulf of Papagayo today, with a component of northwest swell. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 
ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating 
near the gap events. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Aside from the strong winds and northwest swell mentioned above 
in the Special Features section, an earlier pulse of northwest 
swell of 8 to 10 ft covers much of the region south of 30N and 
between 120W and 140W. This will decay below 8 ft from east to 
west over most of this region through early Tuesday just ahead 
of the arrival of the new group of northwest swell into the 
area. 

$$
Stripling