000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong gale force wind event is currently in progress with the northerly winds expected to heave increased to 35 to 45 kt during the past few hours. Evening seas are building to 10-20 ft and expected to reach a max of 22 ft downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 14.5N95W tonight. The associated N to NE swell will mix with long period northwesterly swell resulting in a large area of combined seas of 8 ft or greater reaching the equator between 93W and 110W, and as far SW as 10N112W on Tue before winds and seas begin to quickly subside. A cold front is approaching the far nw portion this afternoon. Strong southerly winds are already observed N of 26N between 138W and 140W with combined seas of 10 to 13 ft partially due to long period NW swell preceding the front. Remnant mixed swell with 7 to 11 ft seas surround these strong winds across the waters W of a line from 32N130W to the equator 120W. The cold front will reach from 31N138W to 28N140W early Mon with the southerly winds increasing to gale force within 120 nm ahead of the front with seas building to 13 to 16 ft. However these gale force southerly winds are only expected to last 6-12 hours before lifting N of the area. The remnant mixed swell will have then subsided some, but 7 to 10 ft seas will still continue from 09N to 32N w of 129W. The cold will extend from near 32N133W to 21N140W early Tue, with strong S winds continuing within 120 NM E of the front. The post frontal westerly flow across the discussion waters from 27N to 30N between 136W and 140W will increase to near gale force Tue, with seas building 16 to 21 ft in the associated nw swell. The large and powerful low pressure system supporting this front will be slow to move across the far NE Pacific Tue through Thu and will generate large NW swell to impact the area later in the week. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends 09.5N75W to low pres near 0.5N81W 1009 MB to 03N89W to 04.5N106W to 04N110W. The ITCZ extends from 05N114W to 06N120W to 06N140W. Only isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 NM n of the ITCZ from 133W to 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for gale conditions in and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: 20-30 kt NW winds across the gulf waters n of 24N are forecast to diminish to a strong breeze across the waters just n of 30N early Mon, then diminish to a fresh breeze by late Mon morning, then further diminish to 20 kt or less late Mon. Seas will subside accordingly to less than 8 ft. Light to gentle breezes are then expected through mid week. Fresh to locally strong NE winds across the waters adjacent to the NW Baja Peninsula this morning have diminished to a moderate to fresh breeze this afternoon and will diminish a bit further to a moderate N breeze tonight. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell are forecast elsewhere N of the Tehuantpec region, with little change then expected through mid week. Another round of large NW swell in the form of 8 ft seas or greater will arrive across 120W on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca: Fresh to locally strong ENE winds are expected to resume this evening and briefly increase to near gale force late tonight as strong wind conditions develop across the outer waters of the Gulf of Fonseca. Max seas of 11 ft are forecast near 10N88W early Tue as the associated NE swell merges with NW swell propagating SE from the strong gap event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N winds are expected through early Tue when strong winds are forecast to reach as far S as 02N81W with seas building to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Remainder of area covered in the special features section. $$ Stripling