000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290800
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 UTC Sun Jan 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong 1032 mb high pressure is
analyzed over northeast Mexico following a cold front that moved
into the southwest Gulf of Mexico yesterday. The dense cool and
dry air associated with the airmass behind the front is funneling
across the isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this morning. A 04 UTC scatterometer pass indicated the onset of
this with winds already reaching minimal gale force. This gale event
will be strong and persistent through Tue, with winds reaching
near storm force by late Sunday. Seas will build to as high as 20
ft.

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the
Great Basin north of the area is supporting winds to gale force
along the Gulf of California, with seas to 12 ft. Winds will 
diminish below gale force this morning, and gradually diminish
to 20 kt or less Monday as the high pressure weakens and shifts
east. Seas will subside accordingly to less than 8 ft. Light to
gentle breezes will follow through mid week.

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ then extends westward from 04N89W to 07N140W. No 
significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Outside of the areas with gale conditions mentioned above, strong
northeast winds off the coast of Baja California will diminish
through today, although long period northwest swell of 8 to 12 
ft will persist through late today before decaying below 8 ft
over the waters north of 08N and east of 120W. High pressure
builds over the region through mid week, supporting light to
gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast gap winds 
will diminish late this morning, before re-developing tonight as 
a stronger gap event, pulsing through Monday. A tightening 
pressure gradient and local drainage flow will support strong gap
winds through the Gulf of Fonseca as well by late Monday. Max 
seas of 11 ft are forecast near 10N87W late Mon night. 

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong n winds expected through 
Mon when strong winds are forecast to reach as far s as 04N80W 
with seas building to 8 ft.

The combination of the Tehuantepec gale event along with
contributions from Papagayo and Fonseca, and an added component
of longer period northwest swell will result in a large area of
confused seas of 8 to 12 ft between 85W and 105W Monday and
Tuesday. This area will propagate west and eventually diminish
below 8 ft from 05N to 10N between 100W and 110W through late in
the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Southerly winds will increase today over the northwest portion of
the discussion area from 25N to 30N between 135W and 140W ahead
of a cold front expected to move into the region late tonight.
Strong westerly winds and large northwest swell will accompany 
this front, which is expected to reach a position from 30N135W to
22N140W by late Tuesday, and from 30N125W to 18N140W through mid
week. Elsewhere, an older group of long period northwest swell of
8 to 11 ft extending over most of the discussion area west of
120w will decay to below 8 ft from east to west through Tuesday.

$$
Christensen