000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jan 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Narrow swaths of gale force are embedded within strong to near gale force nw winds currently across the entire gulf waters. High resolution GFS surface wind forecasts and recent scatterometer data suggest these strongest gale force winds are dammed up along the near shore waters of the east coast of the peninsula from 29N to 24.5N. Two morning altimeter passes measured seas to 12 ft in area. Maximum seas are estimated to be 12-14 ft along 25N. The strong pressure gradient driving these winds will relax beginning early tonight with gale conditions expected to ending Sunday morning after sunrise. Expect strong nw winds across the gulf waters n of 25N and w of 110W early Mon with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding below 8 ft by Mon afternoon. EPAC Gale Warning: A quasi-stationary surface ridge extends from 32N125W to 14N100W. Minimal gale force winds occurring the past 24 hours within about 60 nm of the Baja Peninsula from 28N to 29N, have diminished slightly to 25-30 kt this afternoon, and extend SW and offshore to near 121W. The same strong pressure gradient will begin to relax tonight, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less Sun afternoon, with the associated seas subsiding to less than 8 ft late Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong northerly gap wind event is beginning to develop this evening with gale conditions expected to quickly develop tonight, and continuing through sunrise on Tue. The strongest winds of 40 to 45 kt are expected from Sun afternoon through Mon afternoon, with the seas building to about 22 ft near 14N96W on Mon. The associated n swell in the form of seas 8 ft or greater will propagate s to along 01N between 92W and 100W on Tue before beginning to subside. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends sw off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 06N78W through a 1009 mb low pressure center at 05N78.5W, with the trough then continuing sw to 03N88W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and then continues westward through 04N96W to 01N106w to 04N115W to 02N122W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a line from 06N77W to 03N81W to 05N86W, and within 60 nm of 09N136.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for gale conditions ending this afternoon along the northern Baja Peninsula, and gale conditions throughout the Gulf of California, and a strong gale developing in and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning tonight. Long period NW swell continues to dominate most of the area waters, and is producing seas of 8 to 14 ft across the open waters w of 105W, with highest seas between 125W and 145W where easterly wind waves are combining with this NW swell. These seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft east of 130W by sunset on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong ene winds expected this morning, then resuming this evening and continuing through late morning on Sun. A stronger gap event will begin on Sun evening and pulse through Mon when the pressure gradient will tighten with the strong to near gale force ne flow spreading northward to across the waters just downstream of the Gulf of Fonseca. Max seas of 11 ft are forecast near 10N87W late Mon night. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong n winds expected through Mon when strong winds are forecast to reach as far s as 04N80W with seas building to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, are occurring elsewhere until swells from the gap events develop over the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of strong to near gale force easterly winds extend across the waters from roughly 11N to 24N w of 121W with seas of 9 to 15 ft. The pressure gradient will continue to relax today with winds diminishing to a fresh breeze by sunset. Strong to near gale force southerly winds and large seas will spread e over the waters n of 22N w of 138W beginning late tonight, in advance of a cold front moving e to 32N140W on Mon, and reaching from 32N134W to 20N140W on Tue. $$ Stripling